Top-tier pitching performances down in 2006

Looking at the ERAs of the top pitchers in each league the last few years, it is very evident that for some reason, the top pitchers just aren't performing as well this year so far.

Now, my numbers for 2005 are based on a full year's performance, so it's very possible that some of the top tier pitchers-your Brandon Webbs, Chris Carpenters, Carlos Zambranos-may still put up enough zeros at the end to lower their ERAs to a statisical area we're more used to.

Here are the number of pitchers in each the AL and NL that are under each of these ERA numbers:

2006
Under 3.00: AL - 0, NL - 3
Under 3.50: AL - 5, NL - 8
Under 4.00: AL - 14, NL - 18

Now, obviously there is a discrepency between AL and NL, but this isn't necessarily that NL pitching is better, but that they face a lineup featuring a pitcher as opposed to a designated hitter. Taking all the ERAs over the last 20 years has given an ERA differential between the AL and NL of .369(meaning if you want to have a statistical equivalent between an AL and NL pitcher, add .369 to the NL pitcher's ERA and it gives you a good starting point of comparison).

Now, looking at the number of pitchers in each league LAST season with similar ERAs:

2005
Under 3.00: AL - 2, NL - 7 (Including R. Clemens who was under a 2.00 ERA)
Under 3.50: AL - 9, NL -12
Under 4.00: AL - 21, NL - 27

I think it's typically a thing(at least in my mind) to really be overly critical of pitchers with ERAs that are actually very good. Mark Mulder last year had a 3.78 ERA, which I thought of as pretty good, but quite honestly, from a former Cy Young candidate, I expected more like 2.78 in the NL. But 3.78, even in 2005 would have put Mulder in the top 25, and this year he'd have been 15th in ERA.

So what has happened to the premier pitching this year? Roger Clemens actually has a 2.50 ERA, which would be #1, but he lacks the innings due to his late start this year. Carpenter and Oswalt were up there last year, and are both back, but not quite as good.

The Cy Young races will be drastically different. Last year we had Clemens with the sub 2 ERA vs. Carpenter, who was practically perfect all summer and had a very impressive win total, but who posted an ERA around 2.8 due to some lapses of concentration after the Cardinals clinched. Pitchers like Pettitte and Oswalt were posting awesome years that this year would be easily Cy Young worthy, but last year were overshadowed.

This year, we have Carpenter and Oswalt in the race again, along with Brandon Webb and Carlos Zambrano. None of these guys were as good as any of the top 4 were last year, but they're probably the top 4 this year.

My pick at this point is Webb, although I think Carpenter and Zambrano will get a lot of votes.