Cardinals Free Agency situation
I'm probably getting ahead of myself, but I personally was wondering what the situation was for the Cardinals off-season. With a lot of players coming up as free agents, I decided to figure out who was leaving, how much money would be free, and logical choices for free agent signings.
Part 1: Who's leaving?
A pretty expensive team of players is going to hit free agency from the Cardinals this summer. This includes 80% of the starting rotation(Suppan, Marquis, Mulder and Weaver are all free agents).
The highest paid free agent and biggest decision will be center fielder Jim Edmonds, who is having a down year for him, but is still an above average offensive CF and still, despite missing a decent amount of time, probably stands a good chance at winning another gold glove.
Recent acquisitions Ronnie Belliard, Preston Wilson and Jose Vizcaino also hit the market.
Others: Scott Spiezio, Gary "Cub Killa" Bennett, and Desi Relaford all also hit the free agent market.
Throwing the known salaries into a spreadsheet, the total salaries of the combined players came up to $47,235,638.(Spiezio and Relaford's salaries were not computed, as they signed minor league deals and I could not find their 2006 salary.)
Part 2: Figuring out all the options:
Center field: This will be an issue for the off-season in one way or the other. Jim Edmonds has a 10M option that the team so far has not picked up. His buyout is 3M if they decline the option. The problem here is that you're not really deciding whether he's worth 10M next year, but 7M, as he gets the other 3M either way.
Now, there are some very good center fielders out there to be had. Torii Hunter of the Twins is likely to leave Minnesota and Juan Pierre will be a free agent as well. If the CArdinals are willing to put the money out to get Hunter, then he would be a definite upgrade from Jim Edmonds.
Juan Pierre brings certain things that Edmonds doesn't, and is certainly a viable option as well.
The center fielder list after that drops off considerably, with Gary Matthews Jr. and Kenny Lofton being the next best options. So then, the question is: Is Edmonds worth a 1 year, 7M deal? If not, are they willing to go for someone better or is CF going to become a position the Cards don't spend money on(like 2B).
The Rotation: This will be the biggest issue as far as the success for the 2007 team, although the center field position may prove to hold more drama.
As said above, everyone but Chris Carpenter will be a free agent. With 47M(minus at least 3M for Edmonds), they have money to spend on an ace type pitcher.
Options: Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright could plug into the rotation full time next season, and with no major moves made by Jocketty, most fans will expect them as fixtures there next year for better or worse. Beyond that, the way I see it is that they'd be best off deciding to resign ONE of their starters and going to free agency to fill the other spot.
Jason Marquis, to me, is NOT an option. He doesn't seem to listen to Duncan's coaching, and I don't see why you'd bring back an underachieving pitcher who has tuned out the coach.
Mark Mulder could be an interesting option, if they could get him to take a low-base, high-incentive laden contract, a la Matt Morris 2 years ago. Mulder has ace, or at least #2 type stuff. He showed that in his opening season with the Cardinals going 16-8 with a mid 3 ERA. He also is not quite the same pitcher he was in Oakland, at least at the current moment. If he was willing to swallow a one-year deal like the one Morris took, this could end up being a stacked pitching staff.
Jeff Suppan, a pinnacle of consistency, seems like the other logical choice. He is a good starting pitcher who you can count on to give you 6 or 7 innings more times than not and keep the team in the game. Is he an ace? No. But if Mulder jets and Weaver scares you, he's probably the best available option to fill out the rotation.
That leaves the last spot in the rotation to be settled. There are a number of aces hitting the market this winter. From the left side, Mark Buerhle and Barry Zito both hit the market. Zito is unlikely to come to St. Louis as he has Scott Boras as an agent, and he almost exclusively shops his players towards New York, Boston and Los Angeles(Angels, usually) where the dollars are most plentiful. Buerhle, however, if not resigned by the White Sox, could jettison for St. Louis. He is a St. Louis native and has had no qualms in the past about his desire to someday pitch for the Cardinals. Likewise, from the right side, there are a couple good options. Jason Schmidt could be a superb fit. At 33, he still has some good years left, and a 3 year deal would be excellent(if the market doesn't end up inflating and getting him more). Gil Meche is also having a great year and could be available.
To me, the best fits would be Buerhle and Schmidt who have both had relatively healthy careers and have been ace-type pitchers for several years. Buerhle's having a down-year, but I'd rather invest in him than Gil Meche, who has never tasted this level of success until his free agent year.
2nd base: With the Belliard experiment seemingly a failure(at least to me, but I didn't like him from the start), it seems this is a position to maybe actually spend 3-4M on, rather than paying 5 guys 1M and having NONE of them pan out that well(Jocketty's plan this last year). I'd like to see them kick the tires on Mark Loretta who is having a good year, hitting .295 for Boston, as well as Mark DeRosa, who is batting .321 for Texas. DeRosa may be out of the Cardinals price range, but Loretta this past year made around 3.2M and is probably due only for a marginal raise unless the market gets crazy.
Ideally, the Cardinals will look at signing another stud relief pitcher to complement Looper and give them more assurance in case Isringhausen has another year like this forgettable one. Several good options are out there, like Francisco Cordero, Antonio Alfonseca, Chad Bradford, and the list goes on.
Also, the corner outfield position. Depending on what they do with center, that could be a place to spend some money. Preston Wilson could be a good option if they either keep Edmonds or somehow sign Hunter. That would give them depth, with Encarnacion and Duncan available as well. If they fail to land a big time center fielder, then it's time to look to spend some money on the likes of a Carlos Lee or Jermaine Dye.
Basically, with 44-47M to spend on free agents, they OUGHT to be able to make two BIG signings and still have some cash free to pick up complementary players with. Edmonds could be one of those two big signings should they keep him, or they could go for a couple pitchers, a pitcher and an outfielder, or any other combination. My best hopes would be they either keep Edmonds or get Hunter and get either Schmidt or Buehrle, as said before. Jocketty has his ways though. Sometimes he seems like a genius, grabbing players off the scrap heap, sometimes his methods don't work and he seems like a fool(this year's 2B platoon, with Relaford, Junior Spivey, Aaron Miles, and the now-traded Hector Luna).
There are some problems with the way I look at this: First off, players like Preston Wilson and Jeff Weaver have relatively high salaries, but most of it is not being paid by the Cardinals. Secondly, there are some players under contract due raises for next season. However, I'm assuming these will be basically counter-acted by the lack of Spiezio and Relaford's salaries in my figures and the fact that I'm making the assumption that there will be absolutely zero increase in overall budget, which is unlikely(not that they'll be throwing money around wildly, but a small percentage increase is a reasonable expectation).
Part 1: Who's leaving?
A pretty expensive team of players is going to hit free agency from the Cardinals this summer. This includes 80% of the starting rotation(Suppan, Marquis, Mulder and Weaver are all free agents).
The highest paid free agent and biggest decision will be center fielder Jim Edmonds, who is having a down year for him, but is still an above average offensive CF and still, despite missing a decent amount of time, probably stands a good chance at winning another gold glove.
Recent acquisitions Ronnie Belliard, Preston Wilson and Jose Vizcaino also hit the market.
Others: Scott Spiezio, Gary "Cub Killa" Bennett, and Desi Relaford all also hit the free agent market.
Throwing the known salaries into a spreadsheet, the total salaries of the combined players came up to $47,235,638.(Spiezio and Relaford's salaries were not computed, as they signed minor league deals and I could not find their 2006 salary.)
Part 2: Figuring out all the options:
Center field: This will be an issue for the off-season in one way or the other. Jim Edmonds has a 10M option that the team so far has not picked up. His buyout is 3M if they decline the option. The problem here is that you're not really deciding whether he's worth 10M next year, but 7M, as he gets the other 3M either way.
Now, there are some very good center fielders out there to be had. Torii Hunter of the Twins is likely to leave Minnesota and Juan Pierre will be a free agent as well. If the CArdinals are willing to put the money out to get Hunter, then he would be a definite upgrade from Jim Edmonds.
Juan Pierre brings certain things that Edmonds doesn't, and is certainly a viable option as well.
The center fielder list after that drops off considerably, with Gary Matthews Jr. and Kenny Lofton being the next best options. So then, the question is: Is Edmonds worth a 1 year, 7M deal? If not, are they willing to go for someone better or is CF going to become a position the Cards don't spend money on(like 2B).
The Rotation: This will be the biggest issue as far as the success for the 2007 team, although the center field position may prove to hold more drama.
As said above, everyone but Chris Carpenter will be a free agent. With 47M(minus at least 3M for Edmonds), they have money to spend on an ace type pitcher.
Options: Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright could plug into the rotation full time next season, and with no major moves made by Jocketty, most fans will expect them as fixtures there next year for better or worse. Beyond that, the way I see it is that they'd be best off deciding to resign ONE of their starters and going to free agency to fill the other spot.
Jason Marquis, to me, is NOT an option. He doesn't seem to listen to Duncan's coaching, and I don't see why you'd bring back an underachieving pitcher who has tuned out the coach.
Mark Mulder could be an interesting option, if they could get him to take a low-base, high-incentive laden contract, a la Matt Morris 2 years ago. Mulder has ace, or at least #2 type stuff. He showed that in his opening season with the Cardinals going 16-8 with a mid 3 ERA. He also is not quite the same pitcher he was in Oakland, at least at the current moment. If he was willing to swallow a one-year deal like the one Morris took, this could end up being a stacked pitching staff.
Jeff Suppan, a pinnacle of consistency, seems like the other logical choice. He is a good starting pitcher who you can count on to give you 6 or 7 innings more times than not and keep the team in the game. Is he an ace? No. But if Mulder jets and Weaver scares you, he's probably the best available option to fill out the rotation.
That leaves the last spot in the rotation to be settled. There are a number of aces hitting the market this winter. From the left side, Mark Buerhle and Barry Zito both hit the market. Zito is unlikely to come to St. Louis as he has Scott Boras as an agent, and he almost exclusively shops his players towards New York, Boston and Los Angeles(Angels, usually) where the dollars are most plentiful. Buerhle, however, if not resigned by the White Sox, could jettison for St. Louis. He is a St. Louis native and has had no qualms in the past about his desire to someday pitch for the Cardinals. Likewise, from the right side, there are a couple good options. Jason Schmidt could be a superb fit. At 33, he still has some good years left, and a 3 year deal would be excellent(if the market doesn't end up inflating and getting him more). Gil Meche is also having a great year and could be available.
To me, the best fits would be Buerhle and Schmidt who have both had relatively healthy careers and have been ace-type pitchers for several years. Buerhle's having a down-year, but I'd rather invest in him than Gil Meche, who has never tasted this level of success until his free agent year.
2nd base: With the Belliard experiment seemingly a failure(at least to me, but I didn't like him from the start), it seems this is a position to maybe actually spend 3-4M on, rather than paying 5 guys 1M and having NONE of them pan out that well(Jocketty's plan this last year). I'd like to see them kick the tires on Mark Loretta who is having a good year, hitting .295 for Boston, as well as Mark DeRosa, who is batting .321 for Texas. DeRosa may be out of the Cardinals price range, but Loretta this past year made around 3.2M and is probably due only for a marginal raise unless the market gets crazy.
Ideally, the Cardinals will look at signing another stud relief pitcher to complement Looper and give them more assurance in case Isringhausen has another year like this forgettable one. Several good options are out there, like Francisco Cordero, Antonio Alfonseca, Chad Bradford, and the list goes on.
Also, the corner outfield position. Depending on what they do with center, that could be a place to spend some money. Preston Wilson could be a good option if they either keep Edmonds or somehow sign Hunter. That would give them depth, with Encarnacion and Duncan available as well. If they fail to land a big time center fielder, then it's time to look to spend some money on the likes of a Carlos Lee or Jermaine Dye.
Basically, with 44-47M to spend on free agents, they OUGHT to be able to make two BIG signings and still have some cash free to pick up complementary players with. Edmonds could be one of those two big signings should they keep him, or they could go for a couple pitchers, a pitcher and an outfielder, or any other combination. My best hopes would be they either keep Edmonds or get Hunter and get either Schmidt or Buehrle, as said before. Jocketty has his ways though. Sometimes he seems like a genius, grabbing players off the scrap heap, sometimes his methods don't work and he seems like a fool(this year's 2B platoon, with Relaford, Junior Spivey, Aaron Miles, and the now-traded Hector Luna).
There are some problems with the way I look at this: First off, players like Preston Wilson and Jeff Weaver have relatively high salaries, but most of it is not being paid by the Cardinals. Secondly, there are some players under contract due raises for next season. However, I'm assuming these will be basically counter-acted by the lack of Spiezio and Relaford's salaries in my figures and the fact that I'm making the assumption that there will be absolutely zero increase in overall budget, which is unlikely(not that they'll be throwing money around wildly, but a small percentage increase is a reasonable expectation).
posted by Matt at 4:13 PM
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