State of the Rotation
For the Cardinals, in one word, the state of the rotation: BAD.
However, last night things looked up. After the Cardinals were outscored 33-11 in the front two games of their three game series with the ChiSox, Anthony Reyes, a rookie freshly called up from AAA Memphis threw a one-hitter!
... And lost the game 1-0.
The only hit he gave up was a Jim Thome home run with one out in the 7th.
The problem right now though is that Reyes really only makes it 2(questionably 3) starters the Cardinals can count on right now.
Some key stats of the Cardinals starters this year:
C. Carpenter 6-3, 2.46 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.04 K/9
An. Reyes 1-1, 1.80 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 6.30 K/9
J. Marquis 9-5, 5.53 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 3.75 K/9
M. Mulder 6-5. 6.09 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 4.87 K/9
J. Suppan 6-4. 5.07 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 4.74 K/9
S. Ponson 4-2. 5.30 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 4.44 K/9
Carpenter's been great. So has Anthony Reyes in his 4 starts. They're not the concern here.
Mulder, Suppan and Ponson are all huge problems right now. All 3 have winning records, but that's more a product of having a good offensive club that features Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds and has scored the 4th most runs in the National League. As you can see in the case of those three pitchers, all have ERAs above 5, all have abysmal WHIPs(Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched), and all have K/9(Strikeouts per nine innings) between 4-5, which is not good.
Due to this, Ponson has fallen out of the rotation, at least for one start, which was the start Anthony Reyes took last night. Likewise, Mulder has been put on the DL as they suspect SOMETHING must be wrong with him and that he's simply hiding whatever it is due to being in a free agent year(but wouldn't his value be higher if he had a minor injury and could get better, as opposed to just sucking and having a 6+ ERA?).
Jason Marquis is the enigma here. His statistics are roughly the same as the other three who are pitching horribly, with the 2nd worst ERA of the four and the worst K/9 rate by far. However, his statistics are slightly misleading in one big way. Two days ago against the White Sox he took a battering similar to what Mark Mulder took. However, since the bullpen had to take 5 2/3rds innings for Mulder, Marquis was asked to go out and pitch when he obviously had no control and poor stuff. If he had been pulled with say, 6 ER on his record rather than 13, his ERA would probably be south of 5(not really a noteworthy distinction, but hey, it's something).
He's also got a 9-5 record and has worked the entire spectrum from being a very good starter(having won 6 decisions in a row before the ChiSox game), but also being very bad, taking his first four losses in a row prior to the streak of 6 decisions.
The really troubling thing about Marquis is his K/9 rate. At under 4, his K/9 is horrid. Most sabermetricians(a group of writers/statisticians who look at more obscure, but often more telling statistics about a player's performance) believe it's very difficult to succeed as a pitcher over the long haul with a K/9 under 6. The idea is, to really succeed, you need to be able to get that big strikeout when you need it. If every ball is put in play, there are more opportunities for balls to find holes in the defense or for a player to misplay the ball.
Anyway, overall, the rotation is in shreds right now. Carpenter is the only of the original rotation that is succeeding. Anthony Reyes has been stellar so far and will likely be featured in the rotation at least for 4-5 more starts if not the rest of the season. However, beyond that there's little hope for the Cardinals to get a top ace pitcher. Pitchers like John Smoltz may turn out to be available, but to get someone of that quality, you have to GIVE someone of quality. The only prospects the Cardinals have at that level are Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright(currently pitching in the Cardinals bullpen, and doing an amazing job at it). The Cardinals probably can't afford to give up either of these two pitchers, because they'll both likely be in the rotation next year, with everyone but Carpenter being a free agent at the end of the year.
Bringing Wainwright into the rotation is the only other option to try to fix the rotation, but for many reasons, the Cardinals are unwilling to do that right now. First off, the bullpen actually has been very good, leaving out the aberration of the 20-6 loss to Chicago. A big part of this has been having Wainwright in the bullpen. At first he was expected to do mop-up work and long relief, but he's turned into the Cardinals best reliever. Because of the conditioninig right now, he's really only equipped to pitch 2 or 3 innings at a time for right now.
The other reason they don't want to move him is to avoid jeopardizing his development. For some reason, the psyche of a baseball player(and especially pitchers, seemingly) is very very fragile. Wainwright's success here is a key part of his development. Throwing him in the rotation when he's ill-prepared to make long starts could damage his development and could end up messing with his prospects of being an ace-like pitcher long-term. So instead of thinking Chris Carpenter, we're thinking maybe Rick Ankiel.
The only real hope for the rotation is that a couple of these pitchers turn things around. Marquis and Mulder need to get back on track. If for no other reason than maybe they'll become good trade bait if the Cardinals don't see them in their long-term plans. However, I can't see them letting Mulder get away, even as bad as he's been. If he continues like this, my guess would be he'd be offered a one-year deal a la Matt Morris, where he's offered a reasonable base salary and enough incentive clauses to potentially make him a 10M+ a year pitcher.
However, last night things looked up. After the Cardinals were outscored 33-11 in the front two games of their three game series with the ChiSox, Anthony Reyes, a rookie freshly called up from AAA Memphis threw a one-hitter!
... And lost the game 1-0.
The only hit he gave up was a Jim Thome home run with one out in the 7th.
The problem right now though is that Reyes really only makes it 2(questionably 3) starters the Cardinals can count on right now.
Some key stats of the Cardinals starters this year:
C. Carpenter 6-3, 2.46 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.04 K/9
An. Reyes 1-1, 1.80 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 6.30 K/9
J. Marquis 9-5, 5.53 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 3.75 K/9
M. Mulder 6-5. 6.09 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 4.87 K/9
J. Suppan 6-4. 5.07 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 4.74 K/9
S. Ponson 4-2. 5.30 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 4.44 K/9
Carpenter's been great. So has Anthony Reyes in his 4 starts. They're not the concern here.
Mulder, Suppan and Ponson are all huge problems right now. All 3 have winning records, but that's more a product of having a good offensive club that features Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds and has scored the 4th most runs in the National League. As you can see in the case of those three pitchers, all have ERAs above 5, all have abysmal WHIPs(Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched), and all have K/9(Strikeouts per nine innings) between 4-5, which is not good.
Due to this, Ponson has fallen out of the rotation, at least for one start, which was the start Anthony Reyes took last night. Likewise, Mulder has been put on the DL as they suspect SOMETHING must be wrong with him and that he's simply hiding whatever it is due to being in a free agent year(but wouldn't his value be higher if he had a minor injury and could get better, as opposed to just sucking and having a 6+ ERA?).
Jason Marquis is the enigma here. His statistics are roughly the same as the other three who are pitching horribly, with the 2nd worst ERA of the four and the worst K/9 rate by far. However, his statistics are slightly misleading in one big way. Two days ago against the White Sox he took a battering similar to what Mark Mulder took. However, since the bullpen had to take 5 2/3rds innings for Mulder, Marquis was asked to go out and pitch when he obviously had no control and poor stuff. If he had been pulled with say, 6 ER on his record rather than 13, his ERA would probably be south of 5(not really a noteworthy distinction, but hey, it's something).
He's also got a 9-5 record and has worked the entire spectrum from being a very good starter(having won 6 decisions in a row before the ChiSox game), but also being very bad, taking his first four losses in a row prior to the streak of 6 decisions.
The really troubling thing about Marquis is his K/9 rate. At under 4, his K/9 is horrid. Most sabermetricians(a group of writers/statisticians who look at more obscure, but often more telling statistics about a player's performance) believe it's very difficult to succeed as a pitcher over the long haul with a K/9 under 6. The idea is, to really succeed, you need to be able to get that big strikeout when you need it. If every ball is put in play, there are more opportunities for balls to find holes in the defense or for a player to misplay the ball.
Anyway, overall, the rotation is in shreds right now. Carpenter is the only of the original rotation that is succeeding. Anthony Reyes has been stellar so far and will likely be featured in the rotation at least for 4-5 more starts if not the rest of the season. However, beyond that there's little hope for the Cardinals to get a top ace pitcher. Pitchers like John Smoltz may turn out to be available, but to get someone of that quality, you have to GIVE someone of quality. The only prospects the Cardinals have at that level are Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright(currently pitching in the Cardinals bullpen, and doing an amazing job at it). The Cardinals probably can't afford to give up either of these two pitchers, because they'll both likely be in the rotation next year, with everyone but Carpenter being a free agent at the end of the year.
Bringing Wainwright into the rotation is the only other option to try to fix the rotation, but for many reasons, the Cardinals are unwilling to do that right now. First off, the bullpen actually has been very good, leaving out the aberration of the 20-6 loss to Chicago. A big part of this has been having Wainwright in the bullpen. At first he was expected to do mop-up work and long relief, but he's turned into the Cardinals best reliever. Because of the conditioninig right now, he's really only equipped to pitch 2 or 3 innings at a time for right now.
The other reason they don't want to move him is to avoid jeopardizing his development. For some reason, the psyche of a baseball player(and especially pitchers, seemingly) is very very fragile. Wainwright's success here is a key part of his development. Throwing him in the rotation when he's ill-prepared to make long starts could damage his development and could end up messing with his prospects of being an ace-like pitcher long-term. So instead of thinking Chris Carpenter, we're thinking maybe Rick Ankiel.
The only real hope for the rotation is that a couple of these pitchers turn things around. Marquis and Mulder need to get back on track. If for no other reason than maybe they'll become good trade bait if the Cardinals don't see them in their long-term plans. However, I can't see them letting Mulder get away, even as bad as he's been. If he continues like this, my guess would be he'd be offered a one-year deal a la Matt Morris, where he's offered a reasonable base salary and enough incentive clauses to potentially make him a 10M+ a year pitcher.
posted by Matt at 9:14 AM
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