Saturday, July 29, 2006

Other Observations about Singles hitters

I think the most significant of the stats I came up with last time might just be what percentage of a players hits are singles. It definitely gives you a picture of what kind of power hitter the person is. The only thing I struggle with so far is that I have a small enough sample size with only about 25 players represented to see where the actual cut off is between power hitters, average hitters, and lead-off type hitters.

Here are a few of the numbers though(First, the alleged power hitters):

Player - Singles/Hits % (Active Players tested only)

Adam Dunn - .482
Barry Bonds - .508
David Ortiz - .519
Troy Glaus - .522
Jim Thome - .532
Richie Sexson - .544
Albert Pujols - .547
Andruw Jones - .569
Derrek Lee - .574
Alex Rodriguez - .586
Vlad Guerrero - .606

I'm trying to see if there's any relevance to these stats as far as where a person would likely be plugged in if they are a player who is more willing to take what the pitcher is giving them and will hit to all fields. A player who doesn't always try to pull the ball will, theoretically, hit more singles to the opposite field. However, I'm not sure this stat alone will do that, since if you gapped one to the opposite field, you took what the pitcher gave you, but now according to this stat, you're a power hitter.

The one that shocked me a little is Vlad. With that ultra violent swing, he hits over 60% singles, and is the only "power hitter" of this era with that high of a percentage. The number compares closely to past greats like Stan Musial and Hank Aaron, who were both a little over 60% singles, but of course there are countless reasons(smaller parks, juiced balls, dillution of the pitching talent pool by expansion) that people have for why there are more home runs now.

Now, we'll go the other way. These are the lead-off type guys I put in, which, admittedly, weren't many, because at the time I did it I couldn't think of a whole lot. (A few new ones added, Furcal, Pierre, Damon, Soriano and Jeter)

Player - Singles/Hits %

J. Pierre - .823
D. Eckstein - .808
S. Podsednik - .733
D. Jeter - .730
R. Furcal - .729
J. Reyes - .712
J. Damon - .698
A. Soriano - .576

So looking at these in comparison to the power hitters, why is Soriano batting lead off? I guess his combination of speed and power keep a pitcher off balance early, but a solo home run is still only one run. At least bat him 2nd and maybe some of those home runs are putting you up by a deuce. He also only has a .325 OBP because he doesn't take walks. PUT THIS GUY SOMEWHERE ELSE IN THE LINEUP. He'd be an excellent 2 guy if you want power early in your lineup. He could also fit in somewhere around 4-6 in the lineup too. A lead-off guy? I haven't found any obvious cut-off points in this yet, but when your lead off guy is anywhere near as likely to belt an extra base hit as just get to first(and doesn't get on with amazing frequency either), then you're putting him in the wrong place.

Last note: Matthew Leach of the St. Louis Cardinals had an interesting post today on his blog. It was one of his "Lucky Sevens" posts, where he asks his readers to answer seven questions. They were very good questions this time, so I'm linking it.

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