Saturday, July 15, 2006

How is Keith Law getting paid by Scouts Inc?

If you have ESPN Insider, check this article out.

If you don't have it, think about it. $20 a year for unlimited access to local site lines, extra ESPN articles, and you even get ESPN the Magazine sent to you along with your membership.

However, this article is crap.

Keith Law goes throughout the NL and says what every team needs, saying the following about my beloved Cardinals: "the team is locked into suffocating contracts with nonproductive hitters in right field and at shortstop."

This is after saying the Cardinals need three starting pitchers, assuming Anthony Reyes continues his good work.

Quickly, on the pitching: This is a classic example of stats not telling the whole story. I'm huge on stats, but they're only a part of telling how good a player is. Even sabermetrics like Billy Beane uses can betray you at times.

Take Jason Marquis. He's got a horrid ERA this year at 5.34. However he's 11-6. So is he a good pitcher or not this year? The answer is somewhere in between. The answer is that he's had a few bad outings that came at times when he stayed in games beyond when a manager would normally take a starter out to spare them.

One example was during the abysmal ChiSox series. After the first game, the Cardinals bullpen was pretty thin. Marquis stayed in to absorb, I believe 13 earned runs. Marquis has had problems, but he's also had tremendously strong stretches, one early in the season where he won 6 straight starts.

Also, Mulder, who outside the early part of this season has been a tremendous starter, will be returning soon.

Anyway, on to the more egregious statement, the one I copied and pasted.

Nonproductive hitters at short and right field?

Both Juan Encarnacion and David Eckstein make in the vicinity of 3.5 million a year. A reasonable salary for proven major league players.

Now Encarnacion hasn't been a great savior in right field. His stats sit at .273/12 HR/48 RBI with a .307 OBP.

The old stats of BA, HRs and RBI are good for a 6 hitter, which is what Encarnacion is. The on-base is pretty horrible, and shows that he doesn't take walks. However, I wouldn't say it's a suffocating salary that is killing the Cardinals.

Furthermore, the statement about David Eckstein is absolutely ludicrous. Eckstein is batting .316 with 6 stolen bases and 52 runs scored. He could steal more but with Pujols and Rolen batting 3-4, the typical strategy in St. Louis is to not run into any outs. He's projected to score 97 runs on the season, a very good total for a lead off hitter. He also plays excellent defense and was added to the All-Star team as replacement to the excellent Jose Reyes.

So then the question is, what is Keith Law going by? Is he going by stats? Which obviously show Eckstein to be a very good player. Is he going off what he watches? What has he seen out of Eckstein or Marquis that he doesn't like (unless he only watches once or twice).

So then the question is, why is Scouts Inc and ESPN paying Keith Law for if he doesn't seem to have any level of wisdom behind his analysis?

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