Four-man Rotations

Valatan, a regular poster on Viva El Birdos(a GREAT Cardinals blog) posted recently about the idea of the Cardinals using a four-man rotation. I voiced concerns in a reply, namely that an injury could leave the Cardinals seriously deficient in the rotation, that with two very young arms, I’d hate to see the Cardinals jeopardize their careers for an experiment, and that while the 5th starter for a playoff team is overrated, as they aren’t used in the playoffs, that our fifth starter ideally is Kip Wells, and that it’s not a situation of cutting our fifth starter out.

After this, I brought up that I thought I remembered a team(Montreal I believed it to be) used a four-man rotation recently and that looking up how that experiment went would be the most recent view of the four-man rotation.

I suggested someone else do it, but eventually decided to look up this information myself.

Three situations where a four-man rotation was used include the 2003 Toronto Blue Jays(I had the wrong Canadian team), the 1995 Kansas City Royals, and the Orioles of the Weaver era(69 to the late 70s).

In the first two of these, the experiment ended pretty quickly due to injuries and other problems. However, the Orioles had incredible success with the four-man rotation.

First up: The 2003 Toronto Blue Jays

Halladay and Lidle were the two biggest names in that rotation. Halladay pitched brilliantly all year long, starting 36 games and pitching 266 innings. He posted an ERA of 3.25 and won the Cy Young award that year, having won 22 games. Lidle on the other hand, had issues, only starting 31 games and posted a 5.75 ERA in 192.2 innings. The 5.75 ERA was his career high in ERA, so the four-man rotation didn’t work out so well for him. No one else even posted 30 games started for the Blue Jays that year.

Despite Halladay’s success, he also suffered arm injuries the following two seasons, starting only 42 games the following two seasons and pitching almost the same number of innings in 2004 and 2005 combined that he did in 2003. With pitchers’ arms, they are often so fragile and they break down anyway, so it’s not entirely certain that Halladay’s injuries are because of that season, but it does seem to be a good possibility.

The 1995 Kansas City Royals

Their attempt at a four-man rotation completely fell apart when Kevin Appier, their best pitcher that year sustained an injury that season. The team high for games started that year was 33 and innings pitched 213.1, both by Mark Gubicza. Overall, this attempt at a four-man rotation was complete failure.

The 1970s Orioles

This was the longest sustained success of a four-man rotation in recent memory. Under Weaver, who used the four-man rotation to great success, several players became stars. The four-man rotation setup(having more chances to win games and pile up huge innings pitched numbers also gave them greater chances at post-season awards).

In this group is Jim Palmer, who won three Cy Young awards and from 1970-1978 started at least 35 games every year except 1974, where he battled the injury bug. You could blame this on the four-man rotation, but given how pitchers break down, having one injury-plagued season is pretty meaningless as far as damning the idea of a four-man rotation.

Also in this group of pitchers with sustained success in Baltimore was Mike Cueller, who had his greatest success under Weaver, winning a Cy Young in his first season there. He was always a good pitcher, but got the most notoriety from his time under Weaver. He fell off in 1976, but at the age of 39, this should be expected.

Dave McNally was the last of the three longest tenured pitchers in the four-man rotation. He emerged in 1968 and pitched very well under Weaver for six seasons until 1974. In 1975, he only started 12 games and never pitched in the majors again, instead retiring after a labor dispute. (My first thought here was maybe an injury, but no evidence that the Baltimore 4 man rotation really hurt anyone).

I’m sure a fan of the 1970s Orioles would know whether there was anyone who tried to fill that 4th spot that it seemed the Orioles could never really fill reliably(Most years it was these three guys making 35+ starts and a handful of other guys filling out the other 60+ games). I couldn’t find anything in short time though showing that Weaver wrecked anyone’s career with the four-man rotation.

Overall, I still think it’s a bad idea for the Cardinals in 2007 because of having two young arms that are unaccustomed to pitching like that. If we had Woody Williams and Matt Morris in the rotation with Carp and one of the young guys, I think it’d be an awesome experiment to try. But injuries to the likes of those players seem less likely as they’ve proven themselves very durable starters, and it’s not wrecking an entire career. The risk-reward doesn’t seem to justify trying to go it with four guys.

To be honest though, I do give more credence to the idea than I started with.

MLB's Greatest Innovation?

Perhaps the greatest article/blog post I’ve read all baseball off season was penned(or typed rather) by the Brewers SB Nation poster

In his article, he discusses that the Nationals might very well be the worst team ever as far as starting pitching is concerned. His plan? Well, he found “a pitcher” that doesn’t strike anyone out, but also never walks anyone or gives up home runs. Using other statistics to estimate what the ERA of this pitcher is comes to 3.20. Sounds like a pretty good option right?

Well, I won’t ruin it. Read the Brew Crew Ball article for more explanation.

On the Cardinals homefront, the unrest continues, as Jayson Werth, who the Cardinals expressed interest in, has apparently agreed to terms with the Phillies. Werth wouldn’t have been a huge pickup by any means. He would have been a good bench guy/platoon option, but overall he’s only a .245 hitter career. Not exactly setting the world on fire, but at the same time, Cardinals fans(myself included) are ready for any good news. Even if it meant we were paying Suppan the 10M a year that most of us agree would be pretty silly.

The Brawl and the Bulls

The New York Knicks have dropped to a new low. In the much-publicized brawl that occurred, New York coach Isiah Thomas, a perennial loser in every role in the NBA outside starting point guard, is reported to have “advised [Carmelo] Anthony not to go near the basket shortly before the hard foul” that started the whole thing.

Thomas and some of this players, namely Nate Robinson, who has shown more skills in thuggery than on the court, felt that the Denver starters being in a 20 point game with under 2 minutes was a slap in the face.

Here’s an idea: Play better basketball instead of complaining about what the other team is doing.

Most of the times when players cry about “disrespect,” they’re simply going to alienate fans and show their lack of maturity and professionalism. As a teacher, I’m disrespected everyday. Just as it would be unprofessional to attack a student either verbally or physically because I perceived some disrespect coming at me, it’s the same for these whiny basketball players.

I’d love to see any of them last in a real job(such as mine, or any other job where you ACTUALLY get disrespected). They’re throw a fit, get in a fight, and end up in jail.

The good news for the Bulls on this is that it will likely give the Bulls a better shot in the Greg Oden lottery. They have the right to exchange picks with the Knicks because of the Eddy Curry trade. We’ve already got Tyrus Thomas because of that trade from last year’s pick from the Knicks. With suspensions coming for New York, and the possibility of the precedents of the Indiana/Detroit brawl a few years ago heightening the penalties, New York could be an even more pathetic team. The Knicks are currently the 6th worst team in the NBA. If they drop into that bottom 3, then the Bulls chances of getting the top pick rise dramatically.

And for those of you who haven’t seen Greg Oden at Ohio State, make sure you catch a game sometime. He’s currently playing with one hand, because of hand surgery he’s recovering from. Despite his dominant hand being injured, he’s still turning into a double-double machine. I personally think he looks about as dominant in the college game right now as Dwight Howard has looked against NBA players. Oden, like Howard, looks like a man among boys playing in the paint.

A frontcourt of Thomas and Oden, with guard play from Hinrich and other players like Nocioni and Deng sounds like a beastly team to deal with. Now, Oden’s arrival in Chicago is obviously a longshot at this point, but it should not be overlooked that it is a possibility.

Other News

The Cardinals seem to be mostly set in their starting 8, but speculation continues about who will fill out the rotation. Right now, Carpenter is obviously the ace, and Wells, Reyes and Wainwright appear to fill the 3-5 spots, in whichever order you think is the most fitting.

Others possibly filling the last role at this point: Mark Mulder and Jeff Weaver are still being considered by the Cardinals. Mulder would not be available until probably June, so that would make a trip to the rotation more likely for one of the other bullpen guys. Brad Penny is being shopped, and while he had injury problems, he would be the #2 guy that the Cardinals desire to put behind Carpenter. The Cardinals would probably be dealing bullpen help to LA for Penny.
If all else fails, it may be a three-way competition for the #5 spot in the rotation with the other guys moving up. Long-time reliever Braden Looper, reliever Brad Thompson, and Memphis starter Chris Narveson could all potentially be battling for the fifth spot. Hopefully, this is an all-else fails plan .

Who's the #1 team in the Eastern Conference for points differential?

Don’t look now, here come the Bulls!

Every year the Chicago Bulls go on a road trip while the Circus comes to the United Center, and every year they dig themselves a hole which they have to climb out of. In the 04-05 season, they started the season 0-9 before finishing as the #4 seed in a very watered down East. Last year, they again went under .500 on the circus trip before squeaking into the playoffs.

Again, like always, on their seven-game road trip, they lost the first six games before breaking the shutout at lowly New York. That dropped the Bulls to 3-9 overall.

Now, they are back to treading water in the (L)Eastern Conference, at 9-9 and two games back of Detroit and Cleveland who tie for first place right now. And don’t look now, but they actually are the best team in the East in one key statistic: Points differential. It’s not as significant of a stat as win/loss record obviously, but it does show that this team is capable of putting some serious points up.

In addition, if you look at the Vegas line on each of their games, only once have they lost to a team they were favored to beat. An 89-88 loss to Sacramento, their only loss as home this year, was the lone exception to this.

So thusfar in the NBA season, the Bulls success(or lack thereof, by some people’s standards) is not shocking. If they won every game they were favored in and lost every game they weren’t favored in, they’d be: (drum roll) 9-9. Their opening win against Miami and their home loss to Sacramento are the only times they’ve not done what Vegas expected them to(throwing out the point spread, I didn’t look, nor do I care whether they covered the spread.

Despite the Ben Wallace headband fiasco, the lack of consistent production from Ben Gordon, and the terrible circus trip, this team should still be considered a favorite to earn first round home court advantage in the playoffs as a top 4 seed.

Other news

Despite losing out on Jason Schmidt, the Cardinals are in fair shape this off-season still. Larry Borowski of Viva El Birdos puts some perspective into the situation and points out that in Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright, we have the pieces we need to fill 80% of our starting rotation, and that Schmidt was likely never coming to St. Louis to begin with.(Although, according to a St Louis Post-Dispatch article, they still are pursuing Schmidt, as no final deal has been signed.)

Ted Lilly has signed a 4 year, 40M contract with the Cubs. Another brilliant signing by the Cubs. While Lilly is a good pitcher, he is a fly-ball pitcher who needs to pitch in a park that is at least a neutral park.(He would be a far better sit in St. Louis, despite Duncan’s philosophy of getting ground-ball pitchers). Between Lilly and Soriano, they get two talented players who won’t improve the Cubs weaknesses even in the slightest. While they should be a better team, the Cubs likely will only make the big step towards mediocrity and a .500 record.

Cardinals skipper Tony La Russa wants to meet with, of all people, Barry Bonds. This personally scares the hell out of me, because I think I might have to become a White Sox fan(since I’m living outside of Chicago these days) if Bonds comes to St. Louis. I don’t like the idea of rooting for my team, but rooting against one of the biggest profile players on the team. The only good thing about this would be that batting behind Pujols, Bonds could lock up the MVP for Pujols for next year. Just think of what Pujols could do with a full season and if he got actual pitches to hit.