Cardinals looking to acquire arms through trade?

Given Walt Jocketty’s modus operandi for the last several off-seasons in acquiring big-name talent, along with the skyrocketing contract demands of free agents this summer, it seems very likely that Jocketty will look to fill the needs of his starting rotation through arms in the Cardinals system and via trade.

The only returning member of the original starting five for the 2006 campaign is Chris Carpenter, 2005 Cy Young award winner and 3rd place in the 2006 vote for the same award. In addition to this, there are three possible arms that could be plugged into the rotation for the St. Louis Cardinals from within the organization. Anthony Reyes, who started Game One of the World Series and pitched a beautiful game, Adam Wainwright, who excelled last year as the closer after Jason Isringhausen went down for the season, and Chris Narveson, a lefty who came up to make a spot start in September where he went four innings giving up two runs.

Reyes will be in the rotation barring a trade that will land him in another uniform. The other two are more tricky though. Wainwright’s success in the bullpen compared to his sub-par AAA stats as a starter do suggest that maybe Wainwright is better suited in the bullpen. He may ultimately get a chance at the starting rotation, but with Isringhausen likely not back until May or later, it may not be this year that Wainwright gets to start. Narveson is a possibility, but he is a very green pitcher by MLB standards. He is a lefty and projects to be a decent #5 starter, but La Russa’s Cardinals teams have rarely relied on a rookie to take the ball every five days when a mediocre-at-best veteran could be had.

This leaves the other possibilities to be through trade. There are many names being thrown around in blogs and newspapers alike. Among these names, there are a number that appear to consistently show up and seem to be on the market, and an impressive number of these names are actually very young pitchers. The Detroit Tigers have a duo that have been rumored in both lefty Mike Maroth and electric righty Jeremy Bonderman. The Pirates are said to be willing to part with one of their three young lefties of Zach Duke, Paul Maholm or Tom Gorzelanny, and the Angels are looking to deal the stud youngster Ervin Santana, who is still over a year away from getting the quarter-century break in his car insurance.

In addition, veterans like Jake Westbrook of the Indians, Rodrigo Lopez of the Orioles and Javier Vazquez of the White Sox seem to come up a lot(of course, so does every other ChiSox pitcher, but Vazquez seems the most likely to be traded).

Now, several of these pitchers are very unlikely for the Cardinals to pursue. The asking price for Santana will be very high, Jeremy Bonderman is said to not be on the block anymore, and it’s unlikely Jocketty will trade for a pitcher making 12 million like Vazquez unless the White Sox eat some of his salary(an equally unlikely happening, given the lack of top-tier prospects the Cardinals could give up for him).

But just for fun, let’s look at how these pitchers compare. First, we’ll look at their 2006 stats.

Pitcher - ERA - Record - IP - K - Salary - Age
J. Vazquez - 4.84 - 11-12 - 202.2 - 184 - 12,000,000 - 30
J. Westbrook - 4.17, 15-10, 211.1, 109, 4,250,000, 29
R. Lopez - 5.90, 9-18, 189.0, 136, 3,750,000, 30
M. Maroth - 4.19, 5-2, 53.2, 24, 2,300,000, 24
J. Bonderman - 4.08, 14-8, 214.0, 202, 2,300,000, 24
E. Santana - 4.28, 16-8, 204.0, 141, 350,000, 23
Z. Duke - 4.47, 10-15, 215.1, 117, 335,000, 23
P. Maholm - 4.76, 8-10, 176.0, 117, 328,000, 24
T. Gorzelanny - 3.79, 2-5, 61.2, 40, Not shown, 24

Looking at how they chart out, some things do stand out. Maroth and Gorzelanny are coming off injuries that limited them to well under 100 innings pitched. Bonderman and Santana have the best combination of ERA and Strikeouts, making them the most desirable(but also the ones with the highest asking price). The three Pittsburgh lefties are by far the cheapest, although none of them appear to be power pitchers with Duke and Maholm tied at 117 K’s. And of the veterans, Westbrook is the most desirable, especially as he fits the Duncan system being a sinker-ball pitcher and letting the defense get in the game.

The real question then is, what is a likely package that could pry one or more of these pitchers away. Looking at the situation realistically, the Pirates lefties are probably the ones that would be the most likely to pry away. The Pirates are looking for a power hitting first baseman to fill the gap left by the Sean Casey trade. Chris Duncan’s natural position is first base(he converted to outfield this last season in order to get playing time, since Pujols is obviously entrenched there). Of the three, Zach Duke is the most desirable. He is a lefty Jeff Suppan type pitcher with much better stuff. He pitches for contact and can eat innings and has good enough stuff that with some more seasoning and a good defense behind him, he could be a #2 type pitcher in not too distant years. Paul Maholm would be a good consolation prize if they wouldn’t part with Duke for Duncan straight up(which my guess is, they wouldn’t).

Mike Maroth, another lefty, is probably the next likely pitcher the Cardinals could attain. The Tigers are looking for another outfielder(why, I don’t know, but several articles have said they are), and they need a lefty reliever. Now, I can’t imagine a package of Encarnacion and Rincon would make them happy(but boy would it be great for Cardinals fans, dumping two players we don’t really want at the same time? Awesome!), however Encarnacion and Flores might be enough to pry away Mike Maroth and Thames, their bench-riding outfielder who has shown some pretty good pop from the bench. This rumor has shown up on several sites saying Juan and Looper, but realistically speaking, I don’t see why Detroit would want Looper, as they have a pretty stacked bullpen and only lack a lefty to solidify it.

If it were possible to get Bonderman for any similar package, it would be an obvious pull the trigger situation, but word out of Detroit is after a season where it seemed very likely it was Bonderman’s last with the Tigers, that they intend to keep him now.

There are some crazy situations out there for Ervin Santana, one of them courtesy of Larry Borowski of Viva El Birdos that involves trading Scott Rolen(Note: He is merely speculating on a trade they COULD make, not saying that he's heard anything that could imply there has even been a conversation). Santana is a potential future ace by all accounts, and the Angels do need a third baseman, but I don’t see any reason why the Cardinals would want to get rid of Rolen. He’s going into year two of recovery from a surgery where year two is where they predicted he’d be 100% again, so the Cardinals would be selling low on Rolen(sort of anyway, he did have an MVP caliber performance in the World Series, where some people feel he should have won the award over Eckstein.)

The Cardinals supposedly are still pursuing Jason Schmidt as well, but I see them more likely to fill rotation spots through trades. Good luck to Jocketty in navigating the quagmire that is the 2006 free agent class though.

The Cubs sign Soriano(my take on it)

The signing of Alfonso Soriano by the Chicago Cubs is bringing about a lot of criticism from those who look at the move objectively. First off, his 2006 year seems to be an aberration when you look at his career numbers. In addition, he doesn’t fill the primary needs of the Chicago Cubs. Lastly, in looking at his age and the length of his contract, it’s very evident that he will likely be far removed from his glory years even by the midway of this contract.

The Cubs signed Soriano after a year of career highs in many categories of importance, including home runs(46 in 2006, previous high is 39 in 2002), on-base(.351 in 2006, previous high is .338) and slugging(.560 in 2006, previous high is .547 in 2002). Typically, when a player has their first big year in their walk year, it’s not necessarily a sign of things to come. The most recent example of this would be Adrian Beltre, who was an MVP candidate in 2004, posting a 48 HR, 121 RBI, .334 season. The following year in Seattle after signing a big contract, he posted the much more modest line of 19 HR, 87 RBI and a below league average .255 batting average. Alfonso Soriano seems like another example of Adrian Beltre in that he is a player who has always had huge potential, but was never able to put it all together consistently until his walk year.

Another reason this signing seems to make little sense is that it doesn’t actually help the Cubs with their biggest problem offensively. The problem I’m referring to is naturally that the Chicago Cubs have an abysmally low team on-base percentage. Without getting men on base, it’s impossible to score any significant number of runs. Signing Alfonso Soriano does nothing to aid the team in this department. With a career OBP of .325, tremendously low(Five hitters in the NL had higher batting averages than Soriano’s on-base percentage), Soriano does nothing to help the Cubs here. In fact, in looking at his likely position of left field, he’ll actually be taking the spot of Matt Murton, who last year posted a .365 OBP. Soriano’s 2006 OBP is considerably higher than his career mark(.351 in 2006), but it still rests far short of Murton’s percentage and with his age(31 years old at time of signing), there’s little reason to think he’s going to improve in that aspect of his game.

In addition, his age also is problematic when considering the contract he was signed to. An eight year contract puts him at age 39 when this contract expires. Soriano’s two biggest assets are his power and his speed. The typical situation in the majors is that as a player ages, his legs slow down. Soriano’s years of posting 40-40 numbers are likely to be over just as they’ve arrived.

Another situation that is problematic is people are making him into a “five-tool” player, which he most certainly is not. One of the analysts on ESPN 1000 called him that, but he really is about a three-tool player. He had a very good year from left field with his arm, racking up an impressive assist total, so it’s certainly fair to say his arm is a tool. At this point in his career, he’s still a threat on the bases due to his speed, and he’s obviously a power threat. However, his overall fielding ability is average at best and he’s a career .280 hitter with only one season where he hit .300(2002 - .300 exactly). This is exacerbated by the fact that as mentioned above, as he ages, he will inevitably slow down and really be down to a two-tool player.
When considering all these reasons, the Chicago Cubs signing of Alfonso Soriano really makes no sense, and the Cubs would have been better off signing an actual five-tool player in J.D. Drew, who sported a .393 OBP in 2006(which also matches his career average), has similar speed and arm strength to Soriano, and who could play center field until Felix Pie reaches the majors.

College Basketball!!

It's on my ESPN! WOOHOO!

On that note, time to put the baseball hot stove talk on the back burner(ha ha, real punny, right?).

Tonight: Maryland vs. Michigan State was a very fun game to watch. MSU kept it close the whole time and got screwed out of a real chance to tie the game late by the referees.

It's one thing to complain when the referees make a call and stick with it on a judgement call like a charge/block. This was a situation where first off, Gary Williams called an absurd timeout that actually put his team in a bad situation. His team was killing clock with under a minute left and with about an eight second differential between game clock and shot clock, he called a timeout when one of his players was stepping into an open jump shot with 4 seconds left on the shot clock. So he passed up an open jumper to set up a shot off of an inbounds pass from the sideline. So, on the inbounds, the Maryland player who got the ball shot an off-balance contested three-pointer that bounced off the backboard, completely missing the rim as the shot clock expired. The buzzer went about a half second before the ball went into the hands of a Michigan State player.

Now, the controversial part is that the referees did NOT call the shot clock violation. The most likely explanation is that they saw the ball went to a Michigan State player and made a judgement to not blow the whistle. The problem with that is: THEY'RE NOT PAID TO INTERPRET THE RULES, BUT TO ENFORCE THEM. The game moves too fast, it's a ridiculous idea for a referee to think they have the time to make split-second judgements in the best interest of the game concerning how and when to apply the rules. Just apply them as consistently as possible and the game will take care of itself.

Now, with 8 seconds left, the MSU player who had the ball turned and was called for an offensive foul for elbowing the defender. Now, the offensive foul was legitimate, but the circumstances under which it happened should never have come to be. Eventually, MSU still had their shot to tie, as the Maryland player missed both free throws, BUT, MSU's shot was significantly poorer than one they could have set up with 8 seconds rather than only 4 to get up the court and get a shot.

MSU ended up losing by 2, and I think they definitely have a beef with the referees of tonight's game.

And on a separate note: Western Illinois University(my alma mater) is 2-0!! Now, granted, they have the most cupcake schedule. However, they do play Indiana and Saint Louis both on the road. Both are major conference players, even though SLU(in Conference USA) is now probably actually considered a mid-major again, since it's basically just Memphis left of any real importance.

The other date to remember: 12-29. Brown University visits Macomb, IL to play the Leathernecks in Western Hall, which will mark the most intelligent group of people probably ever to enter Macomb, IL(Don't any other WIU people take this too personally, I went there too). They'd kick our team's butt on the ACT, but Coach Thomas can get his boys to take them on the court.

On late notes: Scott Spiezio resigned with the Cardinals for 2 years/4.5M, which does indicate they might see him as more than just a bench player next year(2nd base?)

2007 Cards (Center Field Options)

Alright, going back to the last post, we'll look at the options for center field.

The options are:

1) Keep Jim Edmonds(either through restructuring his deal or picking up the $10M option.)
2) Sign one of the many free agents
3) Go after Carl Crawford aggressively in a trade

The Cardinals seem to be leaning towards #1, which is probably wise, given the crop of center fielders out there, but let's look at the options for #2 and #3 and how they stack up to Edmonds.

Let's stick with the OBP/Slugging/OPS stats

Player - OBP/Slug/OPS
Edmonds - .350/.471/.821
Roberts - .360/.393/.753
Pierre - .330/.388/.718
Matthews - .371/.495/.866
Crawford - .348/.482/.830

Pros and cons of each.

Jim Edmonds - He's obviously on the decline, as his career OPS is exactly 100 points better than last year. Now, he could rebound on some level as he was hurt with a concussion last year for significant time and played several games with post-concussion symptoms. As everyone else says, it's really a 1 year 7M deal when you consider the buyout. If they can work a 2 year 14-15M deal, that might satisfy everyone. He's still a good glove in the outfield, although many stats people will say his range is considerable worse than it used to be and that he didn't deserve his last couple gold gloves.

Roberts and Pierre - Both are speedsters who would be relatively cheap. Pierre is really not at all a good defensive player, with a zero arm and surprisingly poor range(worse than Edmonds by the stats), but he never strikes out and can steal 40-50 bags a year while hitting around .300

Roberts draws more walks and would be cheaper, and actually has better range. Of the two, I'd rather see Roberts signed.

Matthews is a one-year wonder so far. He was pretty good in 2004, declined in 2005 and had his career year in 2006. He's not the Cardinals type of signing, as he is going to be looking for a payday. I honestly think his 2006 was not an aberration, and that whoever signs him will probably get an OPS of over .800 from him(maybe not .866 though). But again, he's probably going to command at least 7M a year and if you're going to pay that much, why not keep Edmonds who can fill the gap until Rasmus in the minors might be ready.

Crawford is the best option outside of Edmonds. He is continually getting better, is not only a speedster and a plus outfielder(although he's moreso a left fielder in Tampa, he has the tools to be a good center fielder), he even has some pop, and batted over .300 last year. Tampa is overloaded with young outfielders and has no pitching. That's the problem with this idea. PRobably a package of Anthony Reyes, Chris Duncan, and one of the young bullpen arms might fetch Crawford, but will that hurt the Cardinals as much as help them? And it will cost the Cardinals more money as they'd be taking on a player making 3-4M and giving him probably 3 players who total around 1.2-1.5M.

My preferred way to fix the outfield would actually be to try to attain Crawford AND keep Edmonds. That would mean the Cardinals would probably have to go after a couple cheaper options for the rotation(like Woody Williams and perhaps a Kip Wells type who is coming off a down-year.)

If this isn't possible, signing Edmonds to two years 15M to avoid paying him 10M might be a good option. By 2009 maybe Colby Rasmus, the stud AA outfielder will be ready.

Anyway, that's my take.

Cardinals in '07 (2nd base)

Alright, with the free agency situation much different than the last time I posted what I thought would happen(Suppan is probably going to make 8M a year from the Yankees or Orioles or some other team, afterall), time for a new post about the '07 Cards.

Here's the skeleton team right now of players who are under contract for next season:

1B - Pujols
3B - Rolen
SS - Eckstein
RF - Encarnacion
LF - Duncan
C - Molina

Holes at 2nd and in center, where Belliard is a free agent and Edmonds' option has not yet been picked up.

The Rotation at this moment:

SP - Carpenter
SP - Reyes

.... with the other spots unoccupied, this is obviously the biggest area of concern.(Wainwright I'm currently placing in the bullpen, but he could end up in the rotation.)

The Bullpen is particularly settled, with no changing faces:

Lefties - Flores, Johnson, Rincon
Righties - Thompson, Looper, Hancock
Closer possibilites - (both righty) Isringhausen, Wainwright

The bench is mostly gone as of now, but they do still retain rights to Rodriguez and Miles I believe.

For today, I'm just sticking with 2nd base options and predictions.

At 2nd, the list of free agents the Cardinals would be at all likely to pursue include:
Ronnie Belliard, Mark Loretta, Todd Walker, Craig Biggio, Adam Kennedy and there was some slight talk about possibly trying to make Scott Spiezio into a 2nd baseman if he came back.

Here's the options broken down a little more:

Name - OPS - 2006 Salary - Age

Belliard - .725 - 4M - 31
Loretta - .706 - 3.25M - 35
Walker - .754 - 2.5M - 33
Biggio - .728 - 4M - 40
Kennedy - .718 - 3.35M - 30
Spiezio - .862 - 335k - 34

Obviously the best looking numbers here are those of Spiezio's, but remember, that .862 OPS was in limited playing time, so we don't know what to expect out of 140+ games of Spiezio. Also, Spiezio is not a 2nd baseman, so defensively, he's likely to be the weakest on this list next year if he signed and converted to 2nd.

Belliard turned it on in the playoffs, giving him a slight chance of being resigned with the Cardinals, but rumors have him going back to the Indians.

Loretta is a solid #2 type hitter who can still take walks and could probably come for around 3M. He's certainly adequate defensively, but he does lack range that with Jocketty's emphasis on contact pitchers could be problematic.

Walker has relatively good numbers, but he's not a great 2nd baseman defensively, and actually played most of this season at 1st, with D. Lee hurt in Chicago and then with SD after being traded.

Biggio is likely to stay in Houston, but according to this New York Post article by Joel Sherman, Biggio's agent, "that if they don't value me enough and I have to go to St. Louis, Chicago or New York to play on a winner and hit milestones, then I will do it." So should the Astros lowball Biggio, a team like St. Louis could sweep in and pick him up for maybe 2.5-3M. Biggio is a tough competitor, would give the team another clubhouse leader, but is 40 and obviously declining. Nevertheless, he might be just the type of player Jocketty would go after, and he'd be superb between Eckstein and Pujols, giving Pujols another reliable batter in front of him to get on base.

Kennedy's the last real option here. At 30, he's the youngest of this crop. He's probably also the best of this crop defensively. As a former Cardinals(he went to the Angels as part of the Jim Edmonds trade), Jocketty might be more willing to bring him back(think Mabry, Looper, others that have been brought back after being traded or let go).

My predictions for 2nd: Belliard back to the Indians, Biggio will stay with Houston(because the fans might mutiny if Clemens and Pettitte are both gone and the team spurns their last icon from the last decade of success), and Adam Kennedy signs with the Cardinals in the neighborhood of his last contract, around 3M, probably something like 10M over 3 years.