Sunday, November 05, 2006

Cardinals in '07 (2nd base)

Alright, with the free agency situation much different than the last time I posted what I thought would happen(Suppan is probably going to make 8M a year from the Yankees or Orioles or some other team, afterall), time for a new post about the '07 Cards.

Here's the skeleton team right now of players who are under contract for next season:

1B - Pujols
3B - Rolen
SS - Eckstein
RF - Encarnacion
LF - Duncan
C - Molina

Holes at 2nd and in center, where Belliard is a free agent and Edmonds' option has not yet been picked up.

The Rotation at this moment:

SP - Carpenter
SP - Reyes

.... with the other spots unoccupied, this is obviously the biggest area of concern.(Wainwright I'm currently placing in the bullpen, but he could end up in the rotation.)

The Bullpen is particularly settled, with no changing faces:

Lefties - Flores, Johnson, Rincon
Righties - Thompson, Looper, Hancock
Closer possibilites - (both righty) Isringhausen, Wainwright

The bench is mostly gone as of now, but they do still retain rights to Rodriguez and Miles I believe.

For today, I'm just sticking with 2nd base options and predictions.

At 2nd, the list of free agents the Cardinals would be at all likely to pursue include:
Ronnie Belliard, Mark Loretta, Todd Walker, Craig Biggio, Adam Kennedy and there was some slight talk about possibly trying to make Scott Spiezio into a 2nd baseman if he came back.

Here's the options broken down a little more:

Name - OPS - 2006 Salary - Age

Belliard - .725 - 4M - 31
Loretta - .706 - 3.25M - 35
Walker - .754 - 2.5M - 33
Biggio - .728 - 4M - 40
Kennedy - .718 - 3.35M - 30
Spiezio - .862 - 335k - 34

Obviously the best looking numbers here are those of Spiezio's, but remember, that .862 OPS was in limited playing time, so we don't know what to expect out of 140+ games of Spiezio. Also, Spiezio is not a 2nd baseman, so defensively, he's likely to be the weakest on this list next year if he signed and converted to 2nd.

Belliard turned it on in the playoffs, giving him a slight chance of being resigned with the Cardinals, but rumors have him going back to the Indians.

Loretta is a solid #2 type hitter who can still take walks and could probably come for around 3M. He's certainly adequate defensively, but he does lack range that with Jocketty's emphasis on contact pitchers could be problematic.

Walker has relatively good numbers, but he's not a great 2nd baseman defensively, and actually played most of this season at 1st, with D. Lee hurt in Chicago and then with SD after being traded.

Biggio is likely to stay in Houston, but according to this New York Post article by Joel Sherman, Biggio's agent, "that if they don't value me enough and I have to go to St. Louis, Chicago or New York to play on a winner and hit milestones, then I will do it." So should the Astros lowball Biggio, a team like St. Louis could sweep in and pick him up for maybe 2.5-3M. Biggio is a tough competitor, would give the team another clubhouse leader, but is 40 and obviously declining. Nevertheless, he might be just the type of player Jocketty would go after, and he'd be superb between Eckstein and Pujols, giving Pujols another reliable batter in front of him to get on base.

Kennedy's the last real option here. At 30, he's the youngest of this crop. He's probably also the best of this crop defensively. As a former Cardinals(he went to the Angels as part of the Jim Edmonds trade), Jocketty might be more willing to bring him back(think Mabry, Looper, others that have been brought back after being traded or let go).

My predictions for 2nd: Belliard back to the Indians, Biggio will stay with Houston(because the fans might mutiny if Clemens and Pettitte are both gone and the team spurns their last icon from the last decade of success), and Adam Kennedy signs with the Cardinals in the neighborhood of his last contract, around 3M, probably something like 10M over 3 years.

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