Award Season Updates
Chris Carpenter and Albert Pujols are potentially on the verge of history. According to Matthew Leach, MLB's beat writer for the Cardinals, the teammates could be the first teammates in history to win the awards two years in a row. A few times before has a team held both the MVP and Cy Young back to back years, but never the same exact players.
However, neither player is a lock for the award, and could possibly be considered an underdog.
Chris Carpenter seems the more likely to repeat. While he's had a very good season, it's not the season of a typical Cy Young candidate. Rob Neyer wrote an Insider article on ESPN.com about this, and the last 5 starters to win the Cy Young without 20 wins all had something else to blow away the voters. Whether it be an astounding win percentage(Clemens - 18-4 in 2004), massive K totals(347 by Randy Johnson in 2000), or an absolutely filthy ERA(1.74 ERA by Martinez also in 2000). This year the NL crop of pitchers just hasn't been that impressive. And Chris Carpenter and Brandon Webb seem to be the kings of the very short hill this year.
Projected out, Neyer reports that their seasons will likely look like this:
Carpenter: 16-7, 2.84, 186 K's
Webb: 16-7, 3.00, 167 K's
Obviously the last month will be big. Whoever pitches better between these two should win it, or if they both collapse, maybe Bud Selig will intervene and give Johan Santana TWO Cy Young Awards this year.
On the other side, Pujols has more of an uphill battle. As Jayson Stark wrote, the NL MVP is a two-man race, and Ryan Howard is currently leading by a slight margin. I have to believe with his numbers(56 HRs, 139 RBI so far), that he is the leader, and by most articles out there, he is.
It's hard to believe someone likely to hi 60 and 150 in the power numbers could lose, but with Albert Pujols chasing him, it is possible. Pujols is still leading in OPS(although only slightly now - 1.097 to 1.093) and has him in many "clutch" categories. Pujols has the most game winning hits in the NL, and has the most game-winning home runs as well. With runnings in scoring position, Howard is very pedestrian, even below average at .248, whereas Pujols is batting .389 in the same situations.
Pujols also has awesome stats in the power categories(45 and 120), but that just isn't the same as 56 and 139.
The last month will be crucial, but right now it definitely looks like Carpenter will hold up his end, but Pujols will likely be outslugged by the "freak show," as Howard is called by his teammates during BP.
However, neither player is a lock for the award, and could possibly be considered an underdog.
Chris Carpenter seems the more likely to repeat. While he's had a very good season, it's not the season of a typical Cy Young candidate. Rob Neyer wrote an Insider article on ESPN.com about this, and the last 5 starters to win the Cy Young without 20 wins all had something else to blow away the voters. Whether it be an astounding win percentage(Clemens - 18-4 in 2004), massive K totals(347 by Randy Johnson in 2000), or an absolutely filthy ERA(1.74 ERA by Martinez also in 2000). This year the NL crop of pitchers just hasn't been that impressive. And Chris Carpenter and Brandon Webb seem to be the kings of the very short hill this year.
Projected out, Neyer reports that their seasons will likely look like this:
Carpenter: 16-7, 2.84, 186 K's
Webb: 16-7, 3.00, 167 K's
Obviously the last month will be big. Whoever pitches better between these two should win it, or if they both collapse, maybe Bud Selig will intervene and give Johan Santana TWO Cy Young Awards this year.
On the other side, Pujols has more of an uphill battle. As Jayson Stark wrote, the NL MVP is a two-man race, and Ryan Howard is currently leading by a slight margin. I have to believe with his numbers(56 HRs, 139 RBI so far), that he is the leader, and by most articles out there, he is.
It's hard to believe someone likely to hi 60 and 150 in the power numbers could lose, but with Albert Pujols chasing him, it is possible. Pujols is still leading in OPS(although only slightly now - 1.097 to 1.093) and has him in many "clutch" categories. Pujols has the most game winning hits in the NL, and has the most game-winning home runs as well. With runnings in scoring position, Howard is very pedestrian, even below average at .248, whereas Pujols is batting .389 in the same situations.
Pujols also has awesome stats in the power categories(45 and 120), but that just isn't the same as 56 and 139.
The last month will be crucial, but right now it definitely looks like Carpenter will hold up his end, but Pujols will likely be outslugged by the "freak show," as Howard is called by his teammates during BP.
posted by Matt at 7:18 PM
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