Woohoo! The NLCS!
Well, our boys in red have upset the Padres, which to most fans probably was and was not a surprise. We all know about the Cardinals long-standing domination of the Padres(in 3 series, they now have 1 win against St. Louis, the one they got in game 3) but we also know how bad the Cardinals were prior to the playoffs, and were waiting for THAT team to show up.
Now, we're up against the Mets, the best team in the NL most of the season.
So here's the breakdown as I see it:
Pitching rotation: Push.
St. Louis has a pretty bad rotation, although they've been good in the playoffs. Suppan was roughed up a bit, but Weaver gave TLR 5 shutout innings, and Carpenter was 2-0 with two very strong starts. Now, we'll likely see Anthony Reyes added to the playoff rotation to fill out a four-man rotation. The only other option is the NL's winner in the ERA department(for the highest ERA, that is) in Jason Marquis. Let's hope TLR goes with the rookie.
The Mets meanwhile don't have it much better. Pedro, the concensus ace is out until sometime in the middle of next season. "El Duque" Hernandez was scratched from the playoff roster in the NLDS with an injury prior to game 1. They still have Tom Glavine, who is a bonified #2 starter with serious playoff experience. After that, they go to John Maine, who is practically a rookie. Maine had a start very similar to Suppan's, getting knocked out early in a game the manager had a quick hook. That leaves the veteran Steve Trachsel, who's having the year Marquis was wishing for(15-8 despite an ERA very close to 5), and Oliver Perez, who is one of Albert Pujols' favorite pitchers(1.361 OPS vs. Oliver Perez in 24 ABs).
The rotations are ragged, but have both put up the performances so far.
Lineup: Advantage Mets.
The Cardinals have the best player in the series(not to mention the game) in Albert Pujols. They have a pretty good supporting cast who has underachieved this year. Scott Rolen is wearing down, but otherwise had a good year. Jim Edmonds seems to be better so far, but he missed considerable time. Tack on players like Encarnacion, Eckstein, Belliard and Spiezio and they've got a pretty good lineup. However.....
The Mets have an excellent lineup with Jose Reyes leading off, who had a very good year, MVP candidate Carlos Beltran, stud third baseman David Wright, veteran lefty Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca, who is hitting about 250 points better than Molina(ok, I'm being hyperbolic), and that still doesn't include lefty power hitters Shawn Green and Cliff Floyd. The Mets lineup to me seems lot like the Padres lineup, except they've got those 2-3 players who really ARE superstars still, whereas the Padres just had a murderer's row of pretty good offensive players.
Bullpen: Push.
The Cardinals bullpen has been AWESOME so far. The rookie triumvirate of Tyler Johnson, Josh Kinney and Adam Wainwright have been better than any other bullpen out there. So that pushes me to say the Cardinals get the edge. But they are only rookies. The NLCS is a bigger stage, and with rookies, they have to prove themselves on every new, bigger stage. If they keep it up, the Cardinals have the better bullpen.
The Mets meanwhile, have the more experienced bullpen. They have Cy Young contender Billy Wagner closing out games. Any time you have a potential HoFer throwing 100 mph in the 9th inning, you know you're solid there.
Bench: Advantage Cardinals.
Who would you rather have? Michael Tucker, Chris Woodward, Ramon Castro and Endy Chavez or Preston Wilson, John Rodriguez, Scott Spiezio and Gary Bennett?
The Cardinals do have the better bench here. There is far more pop in those bats than in the bats of the Mets bench players. Spiezio could become a fill in for Rolen though, who apparently has a far worse shoulder than he's been letting on.
Overall prediction: Now, I'm obviously rooting for the Cardinals, but I'm being realistic for this. I think Carpenter can be counted on for a win in game 3 and I think the Cardinals can grab one more somewhere from one of those weak Mets starters. If the Cardinals can take it to seven games, with Carpenter going in game 7, I think it's their series to lose, but in all honestly, I'm not counting on that. My prediction: Mets in 6 games.
Now, we're up against the Mets, the best team in the NL most of the season.
So here's the breakdown as I see it:
Pitching rotation: Push.
St. Louis has a pretty bad rotation, although they've been good in the playoffs. Suppan was roughed up a bit, but Weaver gave TLR 5 shutout innings, and Carpenter was 2-0 with two very strong starts. Now, we'll likely see Anthony Reyes added to the playoff rotation to fill out a four-man rotation. The only other option is the NL's winner in the ERA department(for the highest ERA, that is) in Jason Marquis. Let's hope TLR goes with the rookie.
The Mets meanwhile don't have it much better. Pedro, the concensus ace is out until sometime in the middle of next season. "El Duque" Hernandez was scratched from the playoff roster in the NLDS with an injury prior to game 1. They still have Tom Glavine, who is a bonified #2 starter with serious playoff experience. After that, they go to John Maine, who is practically a rookie. Maine had a start very similar to Suppan's, getting knocked out early in a game the manager had a quick hook. That leaves the veteran Steve Trachsel, who's having the year Marquis was wishing for(15-8 despite an ERA very close to 5), and Oliver Perez, who is one of Albert Pujols' favorite pitchers(1.361 OPS vs. Oliver Perez in 24 ABs).
The rotations are ragged, but have both put up the performances so far.
Lineup: Advantage Mets.
The Cardinals have the best player in the series(not to mention the game) in Albert Pujols. They have a pretty good supporting cast who has underachieved this year. Scott Rolen is wearing down, but otherwise had a good year. Jim Edmonds seems to be better so far, but he missed considerable time. Tack on players like Encarnacion, Eckstein, Belliard and Spiezio and they've got a pretty good lineup. However.....
The Mets have an excellent lineup with Jose Reyes leading off, who had a very good year, MVP candidate Carlos Beltran, stud third baseman David Wright, veteran lefty Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca, who is hitting about 250 points better than Molina(ok, I'm being hyperbolic), and that still doesn't include lefty power hitters Shawn Green and Cliff Floyd. The Mets lineup to me seems lot like the Padres lineup, except they've got those 2-3 players who really ARE superstars still, whereas the Padres just had a murderer's row of pretty good offensive players.
Bullpen: Push.
The Cardinals bullpen has been AWESOME so far. The rookie triumvirate of Tyler Johnson, Josh Kinney and Adam Wainwright have been better than any other bullpen out there. So that pushes me to say the Cardinals get the edge. But they are only rookies. The NLCS is a bigger stage, and with rookies, they have to prove themselves on every new, bigger stage. If they keep it up, the Cardinals have the better bullpen.
The Mets meanwhile, have the more experienced bullpen. They have Cy Young contender Billy Wagner closing out games. Any time you have a potential HoFer throwing 100 mph in the 9th inning, you know you're solid there.
Bench: Advantage Cardinals.
Who would you rather have? Michael Tucker, Chris Woodward, Ramon Castro and Endy Chavez or Preston Wilson, John Rodriguez, Scott Spiezio and Gary Bennett?
The Cardinals do have the better bench here. There is far more pop in those bats than in the bats of the Mets bench players. Spiezio could become a fill in for Rolen though, who apparently has a far worse shoulder than he's been letting on.
Overall prediction: Now, I'm obviously rooting for the Cardinals, but I'm being realistic for this. I think Carpenter can be counted on for a win in game 3 and I think the Cardinals can grab one more somewhere from one of those weak Mets starters. If the Cardinals can take it to seven games, with Carpenter going in game 7, I think it's their series to lose, but in all honestly, I'm not counting on that. My prediction: Mets in 6 games.
posted by Matt at 9:00 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home