Oakland's Big Three
The "Big Three," they were known as. Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito defined several years of Oakland Athletic baseball by delivering excellent pitching down the rotation.
After the 2004 season though, they were split up. Barry Zito, with plenty of time left on his contract, but kept, but Hudson and Mulder were shipped off to Atlanta and St. Louis, respectively.
Evaluating trades right away always gives you the wrong idea. St. Louis and Atlanta both seemed to do well for themselves right off the bat. How about now? With two seasons having gone by, do the trades still look as good?
First trade: Tim Hudson sent to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz, and Charles Thomas.
Since the 2004 trade, Hudson's stats are as follows:
2005 - 14-9, 3.52 ERA, 192 IP
2006 - 12-11, 4.83 ERA, 207 IP(so far)
Now, his 2005 stats look good. A mid 3 ERA, almost 200 innings, and a pretty good record. However, the dropoff coming to this year is fairly dramatic. Hudson is still 12-11 and has been better recently, but an ERA close to 5 is never good news, especially when you gave up several players to get that 5 ERA.
Oakland's Billy Beane seems to have gotten rid of Hudson just before he started to decline.
As far as the other players: Juan Cruz was abysmal for Oakland, posting an ERA over 7 in 2005. He was then traded for Brad Halsey, who has been a reasonably good Triple-A starter this year. I don't know enough about him, but his stats, while not bad, don't blow you away.(3-3, mid 4 ERA last time I looked in)
Dan Meyer, probably the true headliner for Oakland in the trade, has had about equal success Halsey has had. Last look-in showed him also at 3-3 with an ERA slightly over 5. Lastly, we have Charles Thomas, who in the Pacific Coast League(AAA) has been a below average player, posting a .654 OPS at last look in.
While Hudson hasn't exactly been the ace Atlanta hoped he'd be this year, the players Atlanta gave up haven't exactly been studly either.
The call: The trade skews slightly towards Atlanta. They got one good year out of Hudson, and appear to have given up very little. They may have made a mistake in signing Hudson though. That we'll see about.
The next trade: Mark Mulder shipped to the St. Louis Cardinals for Danny Haren, Kiko Calero and Daric Barton.
Mark Mulder was expected to be the guy to push the St. Louis Cardinals over the edge into World SEries glory. The expectations were very high, and that 2005 Cardinals team was a monster, pulling off over 100 wins, eventually losing in the NLCS to Houston.
Having said that, Mulder was very good in 2005, arguably better than Hudson. His stats this year and last are as follows:
2005 - 16-8, 3.64 ERA, 205 IP
2006 - 6-7, 7.14 ERA, 93.1 IP
A HUGE dropoff from 2005 to 2006, seemingly moreso due to a degenerative hip issue as well as shoulder issues Mulder has faced this year. If you saw the earlier post about Mulder's mechanics, then you definitely see why his velocity and command haven't been there this year. REgardless of that though, the Cardinals picked up a stud pitcher in 2005 who helped lead them to a moinster season. Mulder this year has been horrendously bad and will likely be leaving St.
Louis this off-season unless he wants to take a large pay cut and an incentive laden deal.
The Cardinals players that went to Oakland have been surprisingly good the last two seasons. Danny Haren, the young stud pitcher, has been very strong both seasons posting the following stats:
2005 - 14-12, 3.73 ERA, 217.0 IP
2006 - 14-12, 4.01 ERA, 211.0 IP(so far)
The thing to keep in mind here, is as I've discussed, there is about a .4 rise in ERAs from the NL to the AL. Chop that differential off and Haren's numbers look like something the Cardinals could have used this year. Haren also has been very healthy and eating over 400 innings the last two seasons. He's likely the third best pitcher the A's have(Behind Zito and the oft-injured Rich Harden), and will be a big part of their rotation next year when Zito likely leaves.
Kiko Calero has been very good out of the pen, too. He was very strong for the Cardinals, and has kept up that level of excellent with the A's. His stats:
2005 - 4-1, 3.23 ERA, 55.2 IP
2006 - 3-1, 3.38 ERA, 53.1 IP
Again, adjusting it for NL numbers, they'd be around 3 even. Calero has been very strong and seems like a good long-term solution for the late innings prior to the closer for Oakland.
The last prospect was Daric Barton. Barton hasn't had a great year in 2006, but was rated as Baseball America's 28th best prospect coming into the season. (The Cardinals had one prospect in the top 100, Anthony Reyes, who was 41st.)
The call: The A's seem to have fleeced the Cardinals, given that Haren's 2005 numbers were very comparable to Mulder's, and that's without even considering Barton and Calero.
Oakland's last move: NOT trading Barry Zito. Beane appeared to know something when he chose to trade Hudson and Mulder, but keep Zito. Ziot's numbers the last two years:
2005 - 14-13, 3.86 ERA, 228.1 IP
2006 - 16-9, 3.91 ERA, 207.1 IP(so far)
Zito was good in 2005, and with a better team behind him in 2006, he put up even better numbers.
Billy Beane seems to have done very well in these trades.
After the 2004 season though, they were split up. Barry Zito, with plenty of time left on his contract, but kept, but Hudson and Mulder were shipped off to Atlanta and St. Louis, respectively.
Evaluating trades right away always gives you the wrong idea. St. Louis and Atlanta both seemed to do well for themselves right off the bat. How about now? With two seasons having gone by, do the trades still look as good?
First trade: Tim Hudson sent to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz, and Charles Thomas.
Since the 2004 trade, Hudson's stats are as follows:
2005 - 14-9, 3.52 ERA, 192 IP
2006 - 12-11, 4.83 ERA, 207 IP(so far)
Now, his 2005 stats look good. A mid 3 ERA, almost 200 innings, and a pretty good record. However, the dropoff coming to this year is fairly dramatic. Hudson is still 12-11 and has been better recently, but an ERA close to 5 is never good news, especially when you gave up several players to get that 5 ERA.
Oakland's Billy Beane seems to have gotten rid of Hudson just before he started to decline.
As far as the other players: Juan Cruz was abysmal for Oakland, posting an ERA over 7 in 2005. He was then traded for Brad Halsey, who has been a reasonably good Triple-A starter this year. I don't know enough about him, but his stats, while not bad, don't blow you away.(3-3, mid 4 ERA last time I looked in)
Dan Meyer, probably the true headliner for Oakland in the trade, has had about equal success Halsey has had. Last look-in showed him also at 3-3 with an ERA slightly over 5. Lastly, we have Charles Thomas, who in the Pacific Coast League(AAA) has been a below average player, posting a .654 OPS at last look in.
While Hudson hasn't exactly been the ace Atlanta hoped he'd be this year, the players Atlanta gave up haven't exactly been studly either.
The call: The trade skews slightly towards Atlanta. They got one good year out of Hudson, and appear to have given up very little. They may have made a mistake in signing Hudson though. That we'll see about.
The next trade: Mark Mulder shipped to the St. Louis Cardinals for Danny Haren, Kiko Calero and Daric Barton.
Mark Mulder was expected to be the guy to push the St. Louis Cardinals over the edge into World SEries glory. The expectations were very high, and that 2005 Cardinals team was a monster, pulling off over 100 wins, eventually losing in the NLCS to Houston.
Having said that, Mulder was very good in 2005, arguably better than Hudson. His stats this year and last are as follows:
2005 - 16-8, 3.64 ERA, 205 IP
2006 - 6-7, 7.14 ERA, 93.1 IP
A HUGE dropoff from 2005 to 2006, seemingly moreso due to a degenerative hip issue as well as shoulder issues Mulder has faced this year. If you saw the earlier post about Mulder's mechanics, then you definitely see why his velocity and command haven't been there this year. REgardless of that though, the Cardinals picked up a stud pitcher in 2005 who helped lead them to a moinster season. Mulder this year has been horrendously bad and will likely be leaving St.
Louis this off-season unless he wants to take a large pay cut and an incentive laden deal.
The Cardinals players that went to Oakland have been surprisingly good the last two seasons. Danny Haren, the young stud pitcher, has been very strong both seasons posting the following stats:
2005 - 14-12, 3.73 ERA, 217.0 IP
2006 - 14-12, 4.01 ERA, 211.0 IP(so far)
The thing to keep in mind here, is as I've discussed, there is about a .4 rise in ERAs from the NL to the AL. Chop that differential off and Haren's numbers look like something the Cardinals could have used this year. Haren also has been very healthy and eating over 400 innings the last two seasons. He's likely the third best pitcher the A's have(Behind Zito and the oft-injured Rich Harden), and will be a big part of their rotation next year when Zito likely leaves.
Kiko Calero has been very good out of the pen, too. He was very strong for the Cardinals, and has kept up that level of excellent with the A's. His stats:
2005 - 4-1, 3.23 ERA, 55.2 IP
2006 - 3-1, 3.38 ERA, 53.1 IP
Again, adjusting it for NL numbers, they'd be around 3 even. Calero has been very strong and seems like a good long-term solution for the late innings prior to the closer for Oakland.
The last prospect was Daric Barton. Barton hasn't had a great year in 2006, but was rated as Baseball America's 28th best prospect coming into the season. (The Cardinals had one prospect in the top 100, Anthony Reyes, who was 41st.)
The call: The A's seem to have fleeced the Cardinals, given that Haren's 2005 numbers were very comparable to Mulder's, and that's without even considering Barton and Calero.
Oakland's last move: NOT trading Barry Zito. Beane appeared to know something when he chose to trade Hudson and Mulder, but keep Zito. Ziot's numbers the last two years:
2005 - 14-13, 3.86 ERA, 228.1 IP
2006 - 16-9, 3.91 ERA, 207.1 IP(so far)
Zito was good in 2005, and with a better team behind him in 2006, he put up even better numbers.
Billy Beane seems to have done very well in these trades.
posted by Matt at 4:14 PM
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