The Cubs sign Soriano(my take on it)
The signing of Alfonso Soriano by the Chicago Cubs is bringing about a lot of criticism from those who look at the move objectively. First off, his 2006 year seems to be an aberration when you look at his career numbers. In addition, he doesn’t fill the primary needs of the Chicago Cubs. Lastly, in looking at his age and the length of his contract, it’s very evident that he will likely be far removed from his glory years even by the midway of this contract.
The Cubs signed Soriano after a year of career highs in many categories of importance, including home runs(46 in 2006, previous high is 39 in 2002), on-base(.351 in 2006, previous high is .338) and slugging(.560 in 2006, previous high is .547 in 2002). Typically, when a player has their first big year in their walk year, it’s not necessarily a sign of things to come. The most recent example of this would be Adrian Beltre, who was an MVP candidate in 2004, posting a 48 HR, 121 RBI, .334 season. The following year in Seattle after signing a big contract, he posted the much more modest line of 19 HR, 87 RBI and a below league average .255 batting average. Alfonso Soriano seems like another example of Adrian Beltre in that he is a player who has always had huge potential, but was never able to put it all together consistently until his walk year.
Another reason this signing seems to make little sense is that it doesn’t actually help the Cubs with their biggest problem offensively. The problem I’m referring to is naturally that the Chicago Cubs have an abysmally low team on-base percentage. Without getting men on base, it’s impossible to score any significant number of runs. Signing Alfonso Soriano does nothing to aid the team in this department. With a career OBP of .325, tremendously low(Five hitters in the NL had higher batting averages than Soriano’s on-base percentage), Soriano does nothing to help the Cubs here. In fact, in looking at his likely position of left field, he’ll actually be taking the spot of Matt Murton, who last year posted a .365 OBP. Soriano’s 2006 OBP is considerably higher than his career mark(.351 in 2006), but it still rests far short of Murton’s percentage and with his age(31 years old at time of signing), there’s little reason to think he’s going to improve in that aspect of his game.
In addition, his age also is problematic when considering the contract he was signed to. An eight year contract puts him at age 39 when this contract expires. Soriano’s two biggest assets are his power and his speed. The typical situation in the majors is that as a player ages, his legs slow down. Soriano’s years of posting 40-40 numbers are likely to be over just as they’ve arrived.
Another situation that is problematic is people are making him into a “five-tool” player, which he most certainly is not. One of the analysts on ESPN 1000 called him that, but he really is about a three-tool player. He had a very good year from left field with his arm, racking up an impressive assist total, so it’s certainly fair to say his arm is a tool. At this point in his career, he’s still a threat on the bases due to his speed, and he’s obviously a power threat. However, his overall fielding ability is average at best and he’s a career .280 hitter with only one season where he hit .300(2002 - .300 exactly). This is exacerbated by the fact that as mentioned above, as he ages, he will inevitably slow down and really be down to a two-tool player.
When considering all these reasons, the Chicago Cubs signing of Alfonso Soriano really makes no sense, and the Cubs would have been better off signing an actual five-tool player in J.D. Drew, who sported a .393 OBP in 2006(which also matches his career average), has similar speed and arm strength to Soriano, and who could play center field until Felix Pie reaches the majors.
The Cubs signed Soriano after a year of career highs in many categories of importance, including home runs(46 in 2006, previous high is 39 in 2002), on-base(.351 in 2006, previous high is .338) and slugging(.560 in 2006, previous high is .547 in 2002). Typically, when a player has their first big year in their walk year, it’s not necessarily a sign of things to come. The most recent example of this would be Adrian Beltre, who was an MVP candidate in 2004, posting a 48 HR, 121 RBI, .334 season. The following year in Seattle after signing a big contract, he posted the much more modest line of 19 HR, 87 RBI and a below league average .255 batting average. Alfonso Soriano seems like another example of Adrian Beltre in that he is a player who has always had huge potential, but was never able to put it all together consistently until his walk year.
Another reason this signing seems to make little sense is that it doesn’t actually help the Cubs with their biggest problem offensively. The problem I’m referring to is naturally that the Chicago Cubs have an abysmally low team on-base percentage. Without getting men on base, it’s impossible to score any significant number of runs. Signing Alfonso Soriano does nothing to aid the team in this department. With a career OBP of .325, tremendously low(Five hitters in the NL had higher batting averages than Soriano’s on-base percentage), Soriano does nothing to help the Cubs here. In fact, in looking at his likely position of left field, he’ll actually be taking the spot of Matt Murton, who last year posted a .365 OBP. Soriano’s 2006 OBP is considerably higher than his career mark(.351 in 2006), but it still rests far short of Murton’s percentage and with his age(31 years old at time of signing), there’s little reason to think he’s going to improve in that aspect of his game.
In addition, his age also is problematic when considering the contract he was signed to. An eight year contract puts him at age 39 when this contract expires. Soriano’s two biggest assets are his power and his speed. The typical situation in the majors is that as a player ages, his legs slow down. Soriano’s years of posting 40-40 numbers are likely to be over just as they’ve arrived.
Another situation that is problematic is people are making him into a “five-tool” player, which he most certainly is not. One of the analysts on ESPN 1000 called him that, but he really is about a three-tool player. He had a very good year from left field with his arm, racking up an impressive assist total, so it’s certainly fair to say his arm is a tool. At this point in his career, he’s still a threat on the bases due to his speed, and he’s obviously a power threat. However, his overall fielding ability is average at best and he’s a career .280 hitter with only one season where he hit .300(2002 - .300 exactly). This is exacerbated by the fact that as mentioned above, as he ages, he will inevitably slow down and really be down to a two-tool player.
When considering all these reasons, the Chicago Cubs signing of Alfonso Soriano really makes no sense, and the Cubs would have been better off signing an actual five-tool player in J.D. Drew, who sported a .393 OBP in 2006(which also matches his career average), has similar speed and arm strength to Soriano, and who could play center field until Felix Pie reaches the majors.
posted by Matt at 6:13 PM
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