Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Da Bulls!

Tonight is opening night for the Bulls, as they play the Heat starting in about 40 minutes.

A look at the Bulls:

First off, they've resigned Kirk Hinrich to a contract extension, which is superb news. The 6'3" guard is the driving force to the offense and has been much better with shot selection in the last year. He's already one of the best defensive point guards out there, and his offensive skills put him in the top 50% of the league for sure.

The contract overall is worth around 47.5M over 5 years. The contract is backloaded, and tops out at close to 12M at the end of the contract.

Other big news: First rounder Tyrus Thomas looks more NBA ready than most people expected, so he could be a very valuable contributor off the bench. With Nocioni, Brown and Wallace playing the power positions most of the time, Thomas won't crack the starting rotation often, if ever, this season. But this was a team that has made the playoffs the last two years. Obviously, they're not a team like the Detroit Pistons when they got Milicic, but it's not a completely different situation. An already solid team(especially now with Wallace) getting a high draft pick.

Tonight could be a good statement game to start the season. The Miami Heat are the big dogs on the block, with the championship rings coming to them tonight. However, it's a team ripe to be picked off tonight with Wade worn down from the off season.

The Bulls should be a top 4 team in the East, and could potentially win the central and be one of the top teams in the NBA. Of course, predictions like this mean little until we actually see them play.

So what will happen? Who knows? But I'm calling for the Bulls to win in the range of 52-54 games this year and finish either the 2nd or 3rd seed in the East.

However, the way they're built, I don't see immense playoff success, so I'll pick them to win the first round and lose in the Conference semifinals. Now, time to file these away for awhile and revisit them late in the season to see if my predictions are worth the bandwidth you're viewing them with.

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Sunday, October 29, 2006

Leadoff Hitters

Thanks to the boys over at Bleed Cubbie Blue and their comments you get if you click that link, I have inspiration for another baseball post(hey, I gotta write about something-The NBA isn't that interesting yet and College hoops don't start for another month really).

Some of the people blindly bashing Eckstein as a very mediocre player and using stats against him made me look up my own stats.

MEANINGFUL ones.

COmparing a lead-off hitter to middle of the lineup guys with OPS is worthless. You pay leadoff hitters to do two things: Get on base and score runs. Now scoring runs is largely a team-based stat, since you usually have to have someone drive you in, unless you're a Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, or David Ortiz and can count on 40-50 homers a season. So I'll make the focus on On-Base Percentage and Strikeouts. Getting on base and putting pressure on the defense.

First we'll start with on-base percentage. I'm using nine different lead-off hitters who are more of the well known ones in these stats: David Eckstein, Juan Pierre, Rafael Furcal, Scott Podsednik, Ichiro Suzuki, Jose Reyes, Johnny Damon, Chone Figgins and Carl Crawford. These are some of the best known typical lead-off type guys out there.

OBP Percentage:
Rank - PLayer - OBP
1) Ichiro Suzuki - .370
2) Rafael Furcal - .369
3) Johnny Damon - .359
4) Jose Reyes - .354
5) David Eckstein - .350
6) Carl Crawford - .348
7) Chone Figgins - .336
T-8) Juan Pierre - .330
T-8) Scott Podsednik - .330

So here, DAvid Eckstein is the median score. Of course, I've only put him up against the better known lead-off hitters. Throw in one for every team, and he's a top-third guy in OBP among lead-off hitters, I would bet.

Now, for strikeouts. PUtting the ball in play puts pressure on the defense, and with these guys' speed, can actually induce some errors.(Note - This is independent of games played, if someone on this list played a partial season due to injury, these could be skewed)

Rank - PLayer - K's
1) Juan Pierre - 38
2) David Eckstein - 41
3) Ichiro Suzuki - 71
4) Jose Reyes - 81
T-5) Johnny Damon - 85
T-5) Carl Crawford - 85
7) Scott Podsednik - 96
8) Rafael Furcal - 98
9) Chone Figgins - 100

So here, we see Eckstein is second only to Juan Pierre, and after Pierre and Eckstein, the dropoff is CONSIDERABLE, going from 41 K's to 71 K's.

When a speedy guy strikes out, he gives the defense NO chance to screw up.

Now, Eckstein is an average defender, and he's only average because of his hustle and willingness to throw his body around, so I won't put him up there with gold-glove calibre shortstops on that.

Eckstein also brings a relatively modest price tag at 3.3M, which compared to the players above on their rookie contracts is obviously a lot, but next to Renteria's 10M he's making in Atlanta, Furcal's 8 digit salary, and the other higher salaries of players like Pierre, Damon and Suzuki, Eckstein's salary has allowed St. Louis to put money in other places.

Eckstein's worth goes far beyond his OPS. And for that matter, anyone who is looking at OPS to judge the worth of a lead-off hitter is missing the point.

David Eckstein is an above-average baseball player who has been a pivotal part of two World Series Championship teams.

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Saturday, October 28, 2006

WORLD SERIES CHAMPS!

So yeah, it's been awhile since I've posted. Work was hitting me hard and I got lazy and complacent, actually having Cardinals games covered up here around Chicago for awhile.

This is officially the 2nd championship the Cardinals have won during my lifetime, but only the first I have any knowledge of personally, as I was 1 year old in 1982 when they last won it.

Some observations: This one has been pointed out several places, but the pitching discrepency of ERA from regular season to postseason was just amazing. From around 4.5 to 2.6.

The 4.5 actually had them as one of the worst teams in the NL in pitching this year. However, as one ESPN.com article pointed out, if you take out the games started by Marquis and Mulder and use only the stats compiled by the four pitchers used in the postseason(Carpenter, Suppan, Reyes and Weaver), the ERA drops to just a shade over 4, which would have been 2nd best in the NL. So while they pitched out of their minds, it wasn't quite as out of their minds as it may have seemed.

Big Props to Jeff Weaver. In the clincher, there were 2 bad plays behind him by Chris Duncan. The Edmonds/Duncan dropped ball in short right which should have been easy, and the misplay that allowed a double a couple innings later.

The first situation, he was taken out by Sean Casey, who was the only Tiger to show up for the Series on offense, but it was a pitch that wasn't really an easy pitch to hit out, an inside cutter, off the plate that Casey had his hands practically buried into his chest to hit.

The second situation, he bore down and got out of the jam with no damage done.

These were the situations as a Yankee, Angel and to a lesser degree as a Cardinal during the regular season that killed Weaver. It seemed like he was very fatalistic about this situations and actually let up on hitters after something bad happened behind him. This would lead to 3-4 runs in an inning, if not more.

Lastly, on the whole Game 2 incident. No one's going to criticize TLR now because they won it despite the whole Rogers mess. However, my thoughts would be, get him checked out. I know it opens up your own guys, but we'd all like to believe none of them are doing anything of that nature. If Rogers was cheating, you have to get him out of there. If he wasn't, having him checked out might have settled the Cardinals hitters enough for them to actually hit the garbage he was throwing. If nothing else, it seemed to get in the Cards' hitters heads that Rogers was untouchable because he was cheating. Either get him out of the game or at least quell those thoughts for your hitters' sake.

But anyway, this might very well be the last Cardinals writing of the year, not counting free agency movement. A more realistic post for who they can bring back and who they should get is probably in order now(sadly, we're probably saying good-bye to Jeff Suppan, who might have just gotten himself an 8M a year contract or more).

WORLD SERIES CHAMPS BABY!!

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Sunday, October 15, 2006

NLCS Fever! (And stupid H.S. kids)

First topic: Cardinals lead the Mets 2-1 in the NLCS and are now going up against Oliver Perez.

Some key stats:

Perez vs. the Cardinals: 1-2, 4.82 ERA, 10 K's, 7 BB, .297 BAA in just under 20 innings.

The Cardinals vs. PErez individually:
The best, by OPS, min. 10 ABs

Pujols: 9/24 batting(.375 BA), 3 HR, 7 RBI, 1.361 OPS
Rolen: 9/20 batting(.450 BA), 0 HR, 5 RBI, 1.178 OPS
Molina: 5/16 batting(.313 BA), 1 HR, 3 RBI, .915 OPS
Eckstein: 3/10 batting(.300 BA), 0 HR, 2 RBI, .900 OPS

Meanwhile, Anthony Reyes has never faced the Mets, so hopefully that will work to his advantage as they won't know his stuff very well.

A win tonight and the Cardinals are in a dominant position, up 3-1, with Carpenter going in Game 6, should it go that far. Carpenter wasn't that sharp last time, but in games after he failed to post a quality start, he has posted a 2.39 ERA this year. One of these starts was on June 6th, which was really his first start back after time on the DL. If we take out this start(as his last start BEFORE the DL stint was not a quality start), then his ERA in games after he gets beat up is 2.19.

Now, on to the 2nd topic. I'm split on this, as a H.S. teacher and being only 25. I understand and remember that I was a stupid idiot who knew everything in H.S. as are most H.S. students.

However, if you're a big profile athlete, you have to know that the choices you make will be seen and criticized by others. Eric Gordon, the #1 rated shooting guard in America, has spurned the Illini after giving them a verbal commitment and has decided to go with Indiana.

This is just filthy on two levels. First off, shame on Gordon. You don't have to make a verbal commitment, but when you do, you should honor it. Illinois head coach Bruce Weber has now been put in a bad place, as he now has to either go one scholarship player shy, or he has to bring in a far lesser calibre player to replace Gordon.

The other level in which this is just absolutely filthy and horrible is that new IU coach Kelvin Sampson, who is already in trouble with the NCAA for recruiting violations while at Oklahoma, has pursued a player who gave a verbal commitment. He hired people close to Gordon to fill positions they're probably unqualified to actually fill in order to get them to influence Gordon to defect. Sampson has shown, both at OU and now already at Indiana, how despicable of a coach he is. The stability that existed under Bobby Knight will continue to be missing from IU's basketball program under Sampson.

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Monday, October 09, 2006

Woohoo! The NLCS!

Well, our boys in red have upset the Padres, which to most fans probably was and was not a surprise. We all know about the Cardinals long-standing domination of the Padres(in 3 series, they now have 1 win against St. Louis, the one they got in game 3) but we also know how bad the Cardinals were prior to the playoffs, and were waiting for THAT team to show up.

Now, we're up against the Mets, the best team in the NL most of the season.

So here's the breakdown as I see it:

Pitching rotation: Push.

St. Louis has a pretty bad rotation, although they've been good in the playoffs. Suppan was roughed up a bit, but Weaver gave TLR 5 shutout innings, and Carpenter was 2-0 with two very strong starts. Now, we'll likely see Anthony Reyes added to the playoff rotation to fill out a four-man rotation. The only other option is the NL's winner in the ERA department(for the highest ERA, that is) in Jason Marquis. Let's hope TLR goes with the rookie.

The Mets meanwhile don't have it much better. Pedro, the concensus ace is out until sometime in the middle of next season. "El Duque" Hernandez was scratched from the playoff roster in the NLDS with an injury prior to game 1. They still have Tom Glavine, who is a bonified #2 starter with serious playoff experience. After that, they go to John Maine, who is practically a rookie. Maine had a start very similar to Suppan's, getting knocked out early in a game the manager had a quick hook. That leaves the veteran Steve Trachsel, who's having the year Marquis was wishing for(15-8 despite an ERA very close to 5), and Oliver Perez, who is one of Albert Pujols' favorite pitchers(1.361 OPS vs. Oliver Perez in 24 ABs).

The rotations are ragged, but have both put up the performances so far.

Lineup: Advantage Mets.

The Cardinals have the best player in the series(not to mention the game) in Albert Pujols. They have a pretty good supporting cast who has underachieved this year. Scott Rolen is wearing down, but otherwise had a good year. Jim Edmonds seems to be better so far, but he missed considerable time. Tack on players like Encarnacion, Eckstein, Belliard and Spiezio and they've got a pretty good lineup. However.....

The Mets have an excellent lineup with Jose Reyes leading off, who had a very good year, MVP candidate Carlos Beltran, stud third baseman David Wright, veteran lefty Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca, who is hitting about 250 points better than Molina(ok, I'm being hyperbolic), and that still doesn't include lefty power hitters Shawn Green and Cliff Floyd. The Mets lineup to me seems lot like the Padres lineup, except they've got those 2-3 players who really ARE superstars still, whereas the Padres just had a murderer's row of pretty good offensive players.

Bullpen: Push.

The Cardinals bullpen has been AWESOME so far. The rookie triumvirate of Tyler Johnson, Josh Kinney and Adam Wainwright have been better than any other bullpen out there. So that pushes me to say the Cardinals get the edge. But they are only rookies. The NLCS is a bigger stage, and with rookies, they have to prove themselves on every new, bigger stage. If they keep it up, the Cardinals have the better bullpen.

The Mets meanwhile, have the more experienced bullpen. They have Cy Young contender Billy Wagner closing out games. Any time you have a potential HoFer throwing 100 mph in the 9th inning, you know you're solid there.

Bench: Advantage Cardinals.

Who would you rather have? Michael Tucker, Chris Woodward, Ramon Castro and Endy Chavez or Preston Wilson, John Rodriguez, Scott Spiezio and Gary Bennett?

The Cardinals do have the better bench here. There is far more pop in those bats than in the bats of the Mets bench players. Spiezio could become a fill in for Rolen though, who apparently has a far worse shoulder than he's been letting on.

Overall prediction: Now, I'm obviously rooting for the Cardinals, but I'm being realistic for this. I think Carpenter can be counted on for a win in game 3 and I think the Cardinals can grab one more somewhere from one of those weak Mets starters. If the Cardinals can take it to seven games, with Carpenter going in game 7, I think it's their series to lose, but in all honestly, I'm not counting on that. My prediction: Mets in 6 games.

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Public Golf Course Etiquette

Ok, we all know the typical etiquette for golf(ok, we don't all know, I guess, but if you care about playing golf, you probably do).

I'm a public golf course kinda guy. As a high school teacher with a law student for a wife, I don't have the cash to throw down to join a country club(yet, anyway).

Here's some rules I think we can all agree on:

1) The rule of course is the furthest person out should hit their ball first. This, of course, should be observed, but if that guy isn't ready, and you're 10 feet closer and on the other side of the fairway, go ahead and hit your ball already! Along with this goes the idea of honors. If your group's best score is a bogey, let whoever's ready go up there and hit. Who cares about honors if your "honors" is over par.

2) Conversation is one of the great parts of golf. It's a sport you can bullshit with your pals almost all throughout the game. Last time out, I played with a guy who, several times, would address the ball, get ready to hit, then remember a story and walk back to us and HAVE TO TELL US THE WHOLE DAMN 3 MINUTE STORY.

Ok, 3 minutes of my life isn't usually an act that should be punishable by caning, but when you address the ball, I don't want to hear another word from you until you've hit the damn thing.

Conversation is best for those long walks down the fairway(or in my case, through the woods).

3) When you play through someone, actually take your time. Everyone who plays on a public course and has played alone knows this rule: When you play through someone, you rush yourself. When you rush yourself, you hit an 80 yard drive into the woods on the left. When you hit an 80 yard drive into the woods on the left, you end up taking 25 minutes to play the straight as an arrow 320 yard par-4 that you should have been able to skate through. We let you play because you were faster than us without rushing. Just take it easy, have a good time and keep playing the same speed. It was the speed that helped you catch up to us, afterall.

4) Last time I was out, I played with this guy.... oh, I already told that story. Anyway, don't pull up from hitting your ball to tell me a three minute story. There's some guy who just played through us that I want to put the pressure on by speeding up and making him choke on the pain in the ass par 3 over water.

5) Don't take everything so damn seriously. If you've got a 40 foot putt and someone else taps in before you and steps on your line, don't get angry. If someone stepping on your line was the difference between you making or missing 40 foot putts on a regular basis, you ought to be on the Tour, not playing golf with my sorry 18 handicap self.

6) If I've never played with you before, don't tell me the story that "I've never played this bad before." We all know you're full of it, and hopefully you've realized that too by now. Anyone who feels it necessary to tell the story about how this is the worst they've ever played every other hole is playing his average round, or perhaps slightly above average.

7) The amount you either spent on golf clubs is not worthy of bringing up unless you are asked. You don't get a merit badge for having spent 5 figures on golf clubs, and you also don't get one for getting a set of $1500 clubs for $.50 and a Blow Pop. If someone asks you where you got your clubs or how much you paid for them, alright, then they asked for it, and deserve the whole story. Don't bring it up to try to impress people though.

With these simple rules, you too can be a nice guy to play on the public course with. Observe these seven rules and learn how NOT to be the guy everyone talks about behind his back.

On a separate note: How about the Chris Carpenter and the St. Louis Cardinals! Up 1 game to 0 over the Padres with the big road win.

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Sunday, October 01, 2006

Pujols vs. Howard

Here's probably my final look-in on the MVP race.

Most other posts of this nature look at the overall aspects of the race. Whose stats are better(Howard), whose more clutch(Pujols), whose team is in the playoffs(Pujols), who seems to be more feared right now(Howard).

The race looks about even, with Howard probably being ahead because of his statistics.

The question I'm going to look at is: who has the better support from his team in carrying the offense?

The OPS's of Pujols and Howard, respectively, are 1.097 to 1.084. Both are ridiculously good.

Now, let's look at the players with an OPS of at least .800 on each team:

St. Louis

C. Duncan - .948
S. Rolen - .887
S. Spiezio - .850
J. Edmonds - .822
J. Rodriguez - .810

Six players(including Pujols) break the .800 mark for OPS for St. Louis.

Philadelphia

C. Ultey - .906
D. Dellucci - .899
P. Burrell - .888
C. Coste - .870
B. Abreu - .861
J. Rollins - .814

Seven position players for Philly. However, Bobby Abreu was traded to New York before the deadline, and Howard has done most of his damage since then, so you can basically make this part of the argument even between Pujols and Howard.

Now, the real thing to look at is how many of these players represent everyday players who have had healthy years(meaning not on the DL). Jeff Sagarin of USAToday rates players in three lists. Those who have averaged the 3.1 AB necessary to compete for the batting title are on the A list. Those who have averaged between 1 and 3 AB are part timers on the B list. Those with less than 1 AB per game are scarcely used and are on the C list. None of the players on either list are C listers, probably for good reason--IF they were good enough to post an .800 OPS or better, they'd probably get more playing time--so we'll be looking at which players are A list and which are B list.

Of the above players, for the Cardinals, only two are A-listers. The MVP candidate himself, Albert Pujols, and third baseman, Scott Rolen. Chris Duncan, Scott Spiezio, Jim Edmonds, and John Rodriguez lack the ABs to be on the A list, either because they were called up late(Duncan), are only part-time players(Spiezio, Rodriguez) or have had injuries take away significant time(Edmonds).

For the Phillies, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell and Jimmy Rollins have all been out there enough to qualify for the A-list. Dellucci and Coste are the part timers, and of course Bobby Abreu was a regular, but was traded to New York.

So if we only look at who had more help, then we have to conclude that Howard has had more help in his lineup. Three full time players, have put up significant numbers this year for Philadelphia. Only one has for St. Louis.

The discrepency is even greater if we look at Sagarin's
ratings for NL batters. But if you want to look at those, do it yourself, I won't bore you with another long post.

The obvious way to interpret this information is that St. Louis has less power, so for them to be in the race and winning the Central is more impressive, and therefore that is a plus for Pujols.

However, you can also look at it this way. Ryan Howard has more around him and is being walked intentionally about twice as much in September as Pujols, who has much less protection around him. So obviously pitchers--or at least managers--are even more terrified of Howard than Pujols right now.

Which way would you vote and why? Leave me comments.(that's aimed at both of you that read my blog!)

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