Bracket Buster Week!
Alright, it's the MWSF Challenge again! I took last week off, mostly due to a combination of business that got in the way and laziness to actually get it done so I could do this.
I went with two ballsy picks last time and two safe. The safe ones held up, the ballsy ones both were losers, for a 2-2 week. That puts me at an overall 12-10. With it being bracket buster week, I'll get myself back to multiples of four by picking a super-week again and going six games.
The games:
Saturday
4:00 PM ET No. 15 Southern Illinois at No. 12 Butler
9:00 PM ET No. 4 North Carolina at No. 21 Boston College
1:00 PM ET Army at Navy
Sunday
3:00 PM ET Northwestern at Illinois
Monday
9:00 PM ET No. 8 Kansas at Kansas State
Thursday
9:00 PM ET No. 11 Washington State at No. 17 Oregon
Three ranked vs. ranked, three unranked vs. unranked.
Time for the analysis and picks!
#15 Southern Illinois @ #12 Butler
Southern Illinois has been doing this for several years. Despite two coaching changes in recent memory(Bruce Weber to Illinois, Matt Painter to Purdue), this program, now under the guidance of Chris Lowery, has been a very good team the last several years, and if my memory serves well, has not missed the tourney in at least three years. I believe it's actually four years.
Southern Illinois has been hot, winning 7 in a row in the superior Missouri Valley Conference, while Butler has also been hot, winning 10 of their last 11(a loss to Wright State last week being the only blemish). I have more faith in the bigger conference team, with the better RPI and Sagarin rating, not to mention that while I have no affiliation whatsoever with SIU, they're in my home state, so I'm making Southern Illinois my pick to win this game on the road.
#4 North Carolina @ #21 Boston College
I picked against North Carolina in the Duke game, and that didn't work out so well. Also, having seen how abysmal BC played against Duke, there's no way I'm picking them until they show something. I honestly don't think there's any way they play as bad as against Duke, but North Carolina is in a different league than Duke this year, as they've proven all season long. The pick here, in my mind, is easy. North Carolina beats Boston College, probably by double-digits.
Army @ Navy
Both teams sport 11-13 Div. 1 records and are mid-200s in the Sagarins. Both are also 3-8 in the Patriot League, not an impressive league. The difference in the RPI is slightly more, but still not impressive(about 20 ranks difference). However, the pick here is Navy, and here's the fairly easy reasons why. First off, they're at home, and in tossup situations, the home court is a nice advantage to have. Secondly, Army is currently the losers of 7 in the row, where Navy has won 2 of their last 3. This game will be covered on CBS, because of automatic ratings generated by millions of veterans in this country, but from a college basketball standpoint, this should be relegated to regional access, because these teams are, as usual, pretty bad.
Northwestern @ Illinois
There's a lot of news for Illinois lately. Carlwell is out until at least the Big 10 Tourney with a concussion, Jamar Smith is out for the year and even the mascot, Chief Illiniwek is about to be out for good. Illinois might be reeling from this, but they still have the home court, and a very tough home court. My brain tells me Illinois is the better team, they have home court, and Weber is smart enough that Northwestern, with their offense, is a team you can't overlook, but my gut is telling me that Illinois may not put up their best showing tomorrow, so I'm going to go with the gut, and pick against my team for the second time in the MWSF Challenge. I'm taking Northwestern to put a hurtin' on Illinois' NCAA Dance chances.
#8 Kansas @ Kansas State
I was looking for a reason to take the upset here. K-State was surging until recently, with a 2 out of 3 skid they're looking to end with this game. They had a 7 game winning streak prior to this skid where they pounded all comers(only non-poundings were on either end of this streak, with the last game in the streak being against ranked Texas). K-State also has the home court.
Despite that, Kansas is still a first place team in the Big 12 and just last week ended K-State's win streak with a 27-point beating. I can't pick against Bill Self's team, even though he often puts up stinkers in his time with both Kansas and before that Illinois. The pick here is Kansas.
#11 Washington State @ #17 Oregon
Gotta love(not really) Dick Bennett basketball. Nothing is better for inspiring small children and old people to take a mid-day nap than popping in some 2000 Wisconsin game tapes, or the more recent Washington State tapes. This is a team that has been very good this year though. This is a team that since a loss at home to this Oregon team, has allowed on average only 53 points per game from their opponent. For the season, they defense only gives up 57.7 ppg. They've scored wins over Arizona(twice) and Gonzaga, and were very close to knocking off UCLA when they were ranked #1. But Oregon just beat this team, in State's arena, about 3 weeks ago. I look to three games on Oregon's schedule that matter to me in picking this game. At Georgetown, back in November, where they won 57-50, at Cal, just this last week, where they lost 63-61, and at Washington State, where they took Bennett out of his style of play and got the score into the *gasp* 70s, with a 77-74 win. This 2-1 record in games where Bennett-style, slow it down and try to score in the high 50s or low 60s, basketball was played, is telling to me.
However, Oregon also has gone 1-4 in their last 5 since that win against W-State.
This is the toughest of the games to pick, and while I thought I was setting myself up to take Oregon, I'll take the road team for the 5th time in 6 games and go with Washington State to avenge their loss to Oregon. I won't be at all surprised if Oregon wins though.
The Recap!
If things go well, it'll be a good week for road wins! I've picked 5 road teams, with only Navy defending their home court. I've also picked against my boys in Orange and Blue for the 2nd time this season, but have made up to my home state by picking the boys down south for a win today.
Southern Illinois over Butler
North Carolina over Boston College
Navy over Army
Northwestern over Illinois
Kansas over K-State
Washington State over Oregon
I went with two ballsy picks last time and two safe. The safe ones held up, the ballsy ones both were losers, for a 2-2 week. That puts me at an overall 12-10. With it being bracket buster week, I'll get myself back to multiples of four by picking a super-week again and going six games.
The games:
Saturday
4:00 PM ET No. 15 Southern Illinois at No. 12 Butler
9:00 PM ET No. 4 North Carolina at No. 21 Boston College
1:00 PM ET Army at Navy
Sunday
3:00 PM ET Northwestern at Illinois
Monday
9:00 PM ET No. 8 Kansas at Kansas State
Thursday
9:00 PM ET No. 11 Washington State at No. 17 Oregon
Three ranked vs. ranked, three unranked vs. unranked.
Time for the analysis and picks!
#15 Southern Illinois @ #12 Butler
Southern Illinois has been doing this for several years. Despite two coaching changes in recent memory(Bruce Weber to Illinois, Matt Painter to Purdue), this program, now under the guidance of Chris Lowery, has been a very good team the last several years, and if my memory serves well, has not missed the tourney in at least three years. I believe it's actually four years.
Southern Illinois has been hot, winning 7 in a row in the superior Missouri Valley Conference, while Butler has also been hot, winning 10 of their last 11(a loss to Wright State last week being the only blemish). I have more faith in the bigger conference team, with the better RPI and Sagarin rating, not to mention that while I have no affiliation whatsoever with SIU, they're in my home state, so I'm making Southern Illinois my pick to win this game on the road.
#4 North Carolina @ #21 Boston College
I picked against North Carolina in the Duke game, and that didn't work out so well. Also, having seen how abysmal BC played against Duke, there's no way I'm picking them until they show something. I honestly don't think there's any way they play as bad as against Duke, but North Carolina is in a different league than Duke this year, as they've proven all season long. The pick here, in my mind, is easy. North Carolina beats Boston College, probably by double-digits.
Army @ Navy
Both teams sport 11-13 Div. 1 records and are mid-200s in the Sagarins. Both are also 3-8 in the Patriot League, not an impressive league. The difference in the RPI is slightly more, but still not impressive(about 20 ranks difference). However, the pick here is Navy, and here's the fairly easy reasons why. First off, they're at home, and in tossup situations, the home court is a nice advantage to have. Secondly, Army is currently the losers of 7 in the row, where Navy has won 2 of their last 3. This game will be covered on CBS, because of automatic ratings generated by millions of veterans in this country, but from a college basketball standpoint, this should be relegated to regional access, because these teams are, as usual, pretty bad.
Northwestern @ Illinois
There's a lot of news for Illinois lately. Carlwell is out until at least the Big 10 Tourney with a concussion, Jamar Smith is out for the year and even the mascot, Chief Illiniwek is about to be out for good. Illinois might be reeling from this, but they still have the home court, and a very tough home court. My brain tells me Illinois is the better team, they have home court, and Weber is smart enough that Northwestern, with their offense, is a team you can't overlook, but my gut is telling me that Illinois may not put up their best showing tomorrow, so I'm going to go with the gut, and pick against my team for the second time in the MWSF Challenge. I'm taking Northwestern to put a hurtin' on Illinois' NCAA Dance chances.
#8 Kansas @ Kansas State
I was looking for a reason to take the upset here. K-State was surging until recently, with a 2 out of 3 skid they're looking to end with this game. They had a 7 game winning streak prior to this skid where they pounded all comers(only non-poundings were on either end of this streak, with the last game in the streak being against ranked Texas). K-State also has the home court.
Despite that, Kansas is still a first place team in the Big 12 and just last week ended K-State's win streak with a 27-point beating. I can't pick against Bill Self's team, even though he often puts up stinkers in his time with both Kansas and before that Illinois. The pick here is Kansas.
#11 Washington State @ #17 Oregon
Gotta love(not really) Dick Bennett basketball. Nothing is better for inspiring small children and old people to take a mid-day nap than popping in some 2000 Wisconsin game tapes, or the more recent Washington State tapes. This is a team that has been very good this year though. This is a team that since a loss at home to this Oregon team, has allowed on average only 53 points per game from their opponent. For the season, they defense only gives up 57.7 ppg. They've scored wins over Arizona(twice) and Gonzaga, and were very close to knocking off UCLA when they were ranked #1. But Oregon just beat this team, in State's arena, about 3 weeks ago. I look to three games on Oregon's schedule that matter to me in picking this game. At Georgetown, back in November, where they won 57-50, at Cal, just this last week, where they lost 63-61, and at Washington State, where they took Bennett out of his style of play and got the score into the *gasp* 70s, with a 77-74 win. This 2-1 record in games where Bennett-style, slow it down and try to score in the high 50s or low 60s, basketball was played, is telling to me.
However, Oregon also has gone 1-4 in their last 5 since that win against W-State.
This is the toughest of the games to pick, and while I thought I was setting myself up to take Oregon, I'll take the road team for the 5th time in 6 games and go with Washington State to avenge their loss to Oregon. I won't be at all surprised if Oregon wins though.
The Recap!
If things go well, it'll be a good week for road wins! I've picked 5 road teams, with only Navy defending their home court. I've also picked against my boys in Orange and Blue for the 2nd time this season, but have made up to my home state by picking the boys down south for a win today.
Southern Illinois over Butler
North Carolina over Boston College
Navy over Army
Northwestern over Illinois
Kansas over K-State
Washington State over Oregon
Labels: Hoops Challenge
posted by Matt at 9:58 AM
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