Monday, July 31, 2006

Cardinals Trades!

Alright, pretty minor overall.

Two trades, First one: Infielder Hector Luna sent to Cleveland for 2nd baseman Ronnie Belliard.

My take on this: Hector Luna is actually probably the better player of the two in many ways. First, far more upside. He has very limited major league playing time in comparison to Belliard. Luna has more range in the field and more speed overall. However, seeing as La Russa had no faith in making Luna the everyday player, Belliard is an upgrade over Aaron Miles. Overall, a fair trade. Belliard is more of a proven player and could be an upgrade at 2nd base

The other trade: A minor leaguer for Atlanta RP/SP Jorge Sosa.

Sosa is an intriguing kind of guy. The bad: He sucks this year(3-10, ERA of 5.46). He's been so bad and has at times pissed off Bobby Cox enough that he has been taken out at odd times and sent down to the minors.

The good: He was 13-3 with a 2.55 ERA two years ago under Mazzone as the pitching coach. Mazzone left, so did his performance. Perhaps Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan will be able to salvage Sosa and make him into what he was in 2005.

Swept by the friggin Cubs

I can't believe it.

The Cardinals continue their 0-for-the season in Chicago against the Cubs this weekend, being swept in a four-game series in Wrigley. (As another blogger at Bleed Cubbie Blue pointed out, they're not just 0-7 vs. the Cubs in Chicago, they're 0-3 at Comiskey/US Cellular too, for an 0-10 @ Chicago experience so far)

It even has that same blogger making a joke that the Cubs have petitioned for the Cubs to play the remainder of their season against the 1st-place Cardinals.

It wouldn't be so bad if the Cubs were just the hot team that outperformed the Cardinals this weekend. But it seemed like the Cardinals played scared and made mental mistakes that are uncommon to Tony La Russa's team. On the Saturday game, the first two Cubs runs were scored in situations where NEITHER should have, if the team had made the expected plays.

The first run was scored by John Mabry, who almost ran through a stop sign at third. However, Ronny Cedeno(I believe) also ran through second on his way to third, hanging Mabry up. Scott Rolen received a throw at third, and tried to tag Cedeno, and failing there, didn't see that Mabry was hung up, allowing him to advance home with no throw.

Is this Rolen's fault? Not really, but the rest of the infield should have been SCREAMING at him to throw home.

The next run resulted from the player at first(don't remember who) basically being picked off first, and while he was in a rundown, Cedeno took off from third and was able to score, which also allowed the player at first to advance to second base.

These are NOT St. Louis-like plays. These are the plays you expect to see the Cubbies make in a Cardinals/Cubs series. But the Cubs seemed to play very good baseball this weekend and the Cardinals occasionally did, but had enough lapses to prevent them from winning a single game.

Stats of the day: In the NL, the Cardinals are 2nd in batting average, behind the Dodgers, with a team BA of .274. They are also 3rd in OBP(.343), but are 9th in Slugging(.425) and 7th in Runs Scored(512). This is NL only, so with only 16 teams, they are obviously one of the most proficient teams at getting on base, but are only average at scoring those runs. Surely you've all noticed this too, with the Left on Base(LOB) stat that Fox Sports Midwest now runs on their between innings scoreboard. The Cardinals always seem to get around 7-9 LOB while scoring maybe 3-4 runs.

Last thing to remember, for those who are very cynical or thing I'm being cynical: They're still in first place by 3.5 games and are the overall #2 team in the NL behind the Mets.

Saturday, July 29, 2006

Other Observations about Singles hitters

I think the most significant of the stats I came up with last time might just be what percentage of a players hits are singles. It definitely gives you a picture of what kind of power hitter the person is. The only thing I struggle with so far is that I have a small enough sample size with only about 25 players represented to see where the actual cut off is between power hitters, average hitters, and lead-off type hitters.

Here are a few of the numbers though(First, the alleged power hitters):

Player - Singles/Hits % (Active Players tested only)

Adam Dunn - .482
Barry Bonds - .508
David Ortiz - .519
Troy Glaus - .522
Jim Thome - .532
Richie Sexson - .544
Albert Pujols - .547
Andruw Jones - .569
Derrek Lee - .574
Alex Rodriguez - .586
Vlad Guerrero - .606

I'm trying to see if there's any relevance to these stats as far as where a person would likely be plugged in if they are a player who is more willing to take what the pitcher is giving them and will hit to all fields. A player who doesn't always try to pull the ball will, theoretically, hit more singles to the opposite field. However, I'm not sure this stat alone will do that, since if you gapped one to the opposite field, you took what the pitcher gave you, but now according to this stat, you're a power hitter.

The one that shocked me a little is Vlad. With that ultra violent swing, he hits over 60% singles, and is the only "power hitter" of this era with that high of a percentage. The number compares closely to past greats like Stan Musial and Hank Aaron, who were both a little over 60% singles, but of course there are countless reasons(smaller parks, juiced balls, dillution of the pitching talent pool by expansion) that people have for why there are more home runs now.

Now, we'll go the other way. These are the lead-off type guys I put in, which, admittedly, weren't many, because at the time I did it I couldn't think of a whole lot. (A few new ones added, Furcal, Pierre, Damon, Soriano and Jeter)

Player - Singles/Hits %

J. Pierre - .823
D. Eckstein - .808
S. Podsednik - .733
D. Jeter - .730
R. Furcal - .729
J. Reyes - .712
J. Damon - .698
A. Soriano - .576

So looking at these in comparison to the power hitters, why is Soriano batting lead off? I guess his combination of speed and power keep a pitcher off balance early, but a solo home run is still only one run. At least bat him 2nd and maybe some of those home runs are putting you up by a deuce. He also only has a .325 OBP because he doesn't take walks. PUT THIS GUY SOMEWHERE ELSE IN THE LINEUP. He'd be an excellent 2 guy if you want power early in your lineup. He could also fit in somewhere around 4-6 in the lineup too. A lead-off guy? I haven't found any obvious cut-off points in this yet, but when your lead off guy is anywhere near as likely to belt an extra base hit as just get to first(and doesn't get on with amazing frequency either), then you're putting him in the wrong place.

Last note: Matthew Leach of the St. Louis Cardinals had an interesting post today on his blog. It was one of his "Lucky Sevens" posts, where he asks his readers to answer seven questions. They were very good questions this time, so I'm linking it.

Friday, July 28, 2006

Some interesting stats

Did some random number crunching after a friend and I were chatting about some of the power hitters(mostly making fun of Adam Dunn's strikeouts and poor average), and I decided to crunch some numbers, and a few things became very clear to me.

Here's what I did: First stat is that I figured out what percentage of the time that a player got a hit was that hit a single (Hits - (2B + 3B + HR) / Hits).

Another stat I did was to add walks in, to basically figure out, how often when a player reached base did they only reach first base(Singles + Walks / Hits + Walks)

Then, similar to OBP and Batting Avg, I figured out how often among at-bats and plate appearances did a player reach first base but go no further, multiplying my above figures by OBP and BA.

Here's some of the interesting things I found:

1) Adam Dunn is the 2nd coming of Mark McGwire.

Yes. It's true. Besides the obvious, that they're both mountain sized men who hit a lot of home runs, the comparison goes much further. First off, with the basic stats, they both had sub-par batting averages, but were willing to take walks, as evidenced by their on-base percentages:

Dunn - .250 BA, .384 OBP
McGwire - .262 BA, .394 OBP

They also had surprisingly similar percentages of singles. On the first stat, percentage of hits that are singles, their career numbers are damn near identical:

Dunn - .4825
McGwire - .4827

They also both hit home runs very often per at bat. McGwire's career number is a home run every 10.6 at bats. Dunn's sits right now at 13.9 for his career, but that number over the last 2 1/2 seasons(since he really started crushing them at a McGwire-like rate), the rate is only 12.6 ABs for every home run.

2) Pete Rose was even greater than I thought

Now, everyone should know he's the all-time hits leader, with 4,256.

And I guess when you keep that in mind, this shouldn't shock you, but the man has 3,215 singles alone. If you took away EVERY extra base hit he ever had, he would still have more hits than everyone in Major League Baseball history other than 12 players. Pete Rose was also 3rd on the list of players I ran the numbers for on percentage of times he was up that he would hit a single(.228) behind Ty Cobb(see below) and current St. Louis Cardinals shortstop David Eckstein.

3) Ty Cobb is automatically my choice for a lead-off hitter, all time.

Here's some numbers for you: .342 OBP, .267 BA

That would make a pretty fair lead-off man. It compares fairly well with those of Scott Podsednik and David Eckstein for their careers and is far better than Jose Reyes's numbers so far(yeah, he's young, I'm not trying to rip him).

Those would be Ty Cobb's number if you took out HIS extra base hits, like I did with Pete Rose above. His actual career numbers were: .433 OBP and .366 BA, but the fact that about 27% of the time he came up to bat he got a single is pretty astounding. This number far surpasses the .228 Pete Rose had and the .229 that 2nd place David Eckstein had.

4) Richie Sexson is VASTLY overrated.

The guy can seriously mash the ball. That no one will debate. If we compare him to Adam Dunn, Mark McGwire and Troy Glaus(the closest comparisons of the players I figured these numbers for), then we get this:

Player - Batting Average - OBP - 1B%* - Single/Hits

R. Sexson - .267 - .348 - .237 - .544
A. Dunn - .250 - .384 - .274 - .483
M. McGwire - .263 - .394 - .281 - .483
T. Glaus - .254 - .358 - .252 - .522

* - 1B% is the percentage of time a player reaches first base either through a single or a walk.

As you can see, Sexson actually has the highest batting average of the four players. However, he has the lowest OBP and 1B%. Now 1B% isn't necessarily a huge stat, if he were hitting a lot more for power, which would mean he would also have a lower Singles/Hits percentage.

So Richie Sexson is considered a big-time power hitter, so you can forgive his tendency to strike out so much right? Wrong. He fails to draw walks and hits singles more often than any of these other players who he seems to compare favorably to. So what you've got in Richie Sexson is a power hitter who fails to make contact and fails to hit for power on the level of the other power hitters.

This isn't to say he's an awful, awful player. He has had two seasons of 45 home runs and last year belted 39. But, compared to the other two active players(Glaus, Dunn), he also makes more money at 13M a year to Glaus's 10M and Dunn's 7.5M

Before I move on from these stats, I will play with them a little more and post some more. I'm looking for more ideas on power hitters and lead-off hitters, who I think these stats will most clearly demonstrate the worth of. Please post in the comments any players you'd like me to add to the chart.

The following players are already IN the chart: Adam Dunn, Richie Sexson, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Albert Pujols, David Ortiz, A-Rod, Troy Glaus, Jim Thome, Vlad Guerrero, Andruw Jones, Derrek Lee, Rickey Henderson, Scott Podsednik, David Eckstein, Jose Reyes, Pete Rose, Ty Cobb, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams and Stan Musial.

I mostly need ideas on lead-off kinda guys, all throughout history. If you give me current ones, please try to come up with ones who have been in the league for at least 5+ full years, as players like Reyes skew the numbers because of their relative lack of experience.

Monday, July 24, 2006

Buy or Sell: Cincy/St. Louis

Ok, this crashed earlier, so this is an abridged version of what I previously wrote:

For Cincinnati, they've already made a couple trades to bolster their bullpen, they have a relatively young, weak infield in the power positions and could be in the market for a first baseman, but likely won't be, because they don't have a lot to trade at this point.

St. Louis has two untouchable players that everyone wants included if they're going to give up a major player. Adam Wainwright and Anthony Reyes are two excellent major league quality prospects(well, not really prospects). Wainwright is currently in the bullpen. Reyes has entered the rotation(and is pitching tonight).

St. Louis has major needs: a starter, a left fielder and possibly some bullpen help(there are 3 rookies in their pen in Wainwright, T. Johnson, and Kinney). Players like Bobby Abreu have been linked to St. Louis, but most likely they would be asked to give up big time prospects and players to get him, including one of the big two mentioned above.

The good news for St. Louis is that two of their needs can be addressed within. They have Mark Mulder coming off the DL sometime within the next month probably. He's been an all-star starter when healthy and could be the ace that St. Louis has been looking for(to pair with Chris Carpenter, the true staff ace).

Likewise, Chris Duncan(son of pitching coach Dave Duncan) has emerged as a quality lefthanded bat to fill the void at left field. He and So Taguchi are the likely platoon there if there is no trade made to add a big time bat.

Both teams are more likely to buy than sell(obviously), but don't be shocked if there are no moves from either of these teams until at least waiver-wire time(where Jocketty makes some of his biggest trades, a la Larry Walker)

Thursday, July 20, 2006

Buy or Sell! (HOU and MIL)

Next up! The Crew! (Milwaukee Brewers)

Their likely status: Holding their current team as together as possible(with a couple minor buys or sells possible)

There are a few players that if they brought in a piece that would better fit(like a starting pitcher?), they'd be likely to be traded, but otherwise, I honestly don't see the Brewers making any moves.

Those players who COULD be traded(but, again, are probably not going anywhere) include Brady Clark, who could be a very valuable lead-off man for many teams, with his .381 OBP, and he could either remain in CF or be moved(like Scott Podsednik when he was shipped from Milwaukee to the White Sox), Jeff Cirillo with a .321 average and 13 homers, Brian Shouse, a very good lefty out of the bullpen, and lastly Carlos Lee, the big guy. They want to sign him to an extension, but if that doesn't happen in the next week or so, expect the bidding to begin with a top pitching prospect.

If they make a move, the Brewers are going to be looking for players that can help this or next season. With a young core including Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Rickie Weeks, they're set on young talent that has been incubating in the minors for a reasonable time.


And next today! The Houston Astros.

Anytime you have a pitching rotation that hinges around a 44 year old, you've got to either put that 44 year old on the block or be buyers in the market to build the team for THIS year. Roger Clemens isn't going anywhere unless he asks to be traded(and considering he JUST signed not that long ago, I don't see that happening). They've already made it clear that they are buyers as well, with the acquisition of Aubrey Huff from Tampa Bay that gives Houston a reasonably good lefty bat.

However, the Astros to keep it up, have to get at least one more top-tier bat to go with Lance Berkman.

They're one of the few teams that is fairly set on pitching, with Clemens, Oswalt, Pettitte(who has struggled), and Brandon Backe returning to the rotation so far with a 2-1 record and 2.25 ERA.

Next time up - Division leaders Cincinnati and St. Louis(Hint: they're both buyers)

Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Buying and Selling: Part One(Pitt and CHC)

My very own game of Buy or Sell!

NL Central version.

I'm going to go through each of the teams and for sellers, talk about likely people to be traded, for buyers, talk about what they need.

We'll start at the bottom:

The Pittsburgh Pirates: Definite Sellers

Players that could be traded: Kip Wells, Sean Casey, Craig Wilson, Jeromy Burnitz.

Overall, I would say the only likely ones to be traded of these are Casey and Wilson. Reports have said that Casey will likely be shipped if the Pirates are unable to ink him to a contract extension before the deadline.

Wilson has been in trade talks all year long, being linked to the St. Louis Cardinals. Trade talks broke down when the Pirates insisted upon receiving one of the untouchable players the Cardinals will not part with.

Should someone want to take a chance on a #3 or #4 type starter, Kip Wells could help a staff if he could return to his 2002-2003 form, when he had reasonably good ERAs but poor records due to being a Pirate.

Burnitz is another player that could possibly help a team in need of a lefty bat, but he's batting a horrible .227 right now. However, in 2003 he had similarly bad numbers(.204, 13, 32) and was traded from the Dodgers to the Mets for the stretch run, so anything's possible.


Next up: The Chicago Cubs

They are perhaps going to become the biggest sellers in the majors this trade deadline, that is if anyone wants their extraneous parts.

Players who could be traded: (Almost everyone who isn't 25 or under or named Derrek Lee, really) Greg Maddux, Glendon Rusch, Scott Williamson, John Mabry, Phil Nevin, Todd Walker, Jacque Jones, and finally, last but not least, Juan Pierre.

Now, the problem here is, they're so flush with people they want rid of that they won't be able to get rid of most of them. Maddux, Williamson, Walker and Pierre are their best trading chips, but they're actually trying to sign Pierre to an extension from the sound of things, so we'll say he's unlikely to be traded.

With the much better hitting Todd Walker available, no one's going to want Mabry or Nevin at this point, Jones is only in the first year of a three-year deal, so unless the Cubs are willing to eat some payroll on him or talk the Yankees into a trade, most likely he's staying too. And lastly, I can't imagine there are a lot of calls for Rusch.

That being said, they do have at the very least, a couple players in Maddux and Walker that I would be surprised if they're still in Cubs uniforms come August. Maddux has expressed that he would like to stay in Chicago, but didn't seem that broken up about the idea of being traded. Walker has already been linked to San Francisco possibly.

Next post will be the Brew Crew and the Astros.

Late Correction: Mike Gonzalez a reliever for the Pirates, is probably actually more likely to go than the others. I overlooked him at first when I was looking at the list, but he's rumored to have both LA and San Fran interested in him for his potential as a closer.

Saturday, July 15, 2006

How is Keith Law getting paid by Scouts Inc?

If you have ESPN Insider, check this article out.

If you don't have it, think about it. $20 a year for unlimited access to local site lines, extra ESPN articles, and you even get ESPN the Magazine sent to you along with your membership.

However, this article is crap.

Keith Law goes throughout the NL and says what every team needs, saying the following about my beloved Cardinals: "the team is locked into suffocating contracts with nonproductive hitters in right field and at shortstop."

This is after saying the Cardinals need three starting pitchers, assuming Anthony Reyes continues his good work.

Quickly, on the pitching: This is a classic example of stats not telling the whole story. I'm huge on stats, but they're only a part of telling how good a player is. Even sabermetrics like Billy Beane uses can betray you at times.

Take Jason Marquis. He's got a horrid ERA this year at 5.34. However he's 11-6. So is he a good pitcher or not this year? The answer is somewhere in between. The answer is that he's had a few bad outings that came at times when he stayed in games beyond when a manager would normally take a starter out to spare them.

One example was during the abysmal ChiSox series. After the first game, the Cardinals bullpen was pretty thin. Marquis stayed in to absorb, I believe 13 earned runs. Marquis has had problems, but he's also had tremendously strong stretches, one early in the season where he won 6 straight starts.

Also, Mulder, who outside the early part of this season has been a tremendous starter, will be returning soon.

Anyway, on to the more egregious statement, the one I copied and pasted.

Nonproductive hitters at short and right field?

Both Juan Encarnacion and David Eckstein make in the vicinity of 3.5 million a year. A reasonable salary for proven major league players.

Now Encarnacion hasn't been a great savior in right field. His stats sit at .273/12 HR/48 RBI with a .307 OBP.

The old stats of BA, HRs and RBI are good for a 6 hitter, which is what Encarnacion is. The on-base is pretty horrible, and shows that he doesn't take walks. However, I wouldn't say it's a suffocating salary that is killing the Cardinals.

Furthermore, the statement about David Eckstein is absolutely ludicrous. Eckstein is batting .316 with 6 stolen bases and 52 runs scored. He could steal more but with Pujols and Rolen batting 3-4, the typical strategy in St. Louis is to not run into any outs. He's projected to score 97 runs on the season, a very good total for a lead off hitter. He also plays excellent defense and was added to the All-Star team as replacement to the excellent Jose Reyes.

So then the question is, what is Keith Law going by? Is he going by stats? Which obviously show Eckstein to be a very good player. Is he going off what he watches? What has he seen out of Eckstein or Marquis that he doesn't like (unless he only watches once or twice).

So then the question is, why is Scouts Inc and ESPN paying Keith Law for if he doesn't seem to have any level of wisdom behind his analysis?

Friday, July 14, 2006

Stat of the Day: 500 HR Hitters

Here are the numbers of 500 HR hitters by decade by their birthyears:

1890s - 1 (Ruth)
1900s - 2 (Foxx, Ott)
1910s - 1 (T. Williams)
1920s - 0
1930s - 8 (Aaron, Mays, Robinson, Killebrew, Mantle, McCovey, Banks, Mathews)
1940s - 2 (R. Jackson, Schmidt)
1950s - 1 (Murray)
1960s - 5* (Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, Palmeiro, Griffey Jr.)

* - There are still a couple players who could reach the plateau born in the 1960s in Gary Sheffield(449 career HRs entering this season) and Frank Thomas (448 entering the season).

There are no 500 HR hitters from the 1970s yet, however, only a few are within sniffing distance in Manny Ramirez (435 HRs, 33 years old), Jim Thome (430 HR, 34 y/0), Alex Rodriguez (429 HR, 29 y/o), and much further down the list, Carlos Delgado (369 HR, 33 y/0).

Do what you want with that stat, I just found it interesting to see the power surge of players born during the 1930s.

Tuesday, July 11, 2006

The All-Star Game

First off, I have to say I was wrong on some level about last night. Even though I think the Derby is lacking some serious star power and that it could use some tweaks to really make it more compelling, it did have a darn good ending.

Howard hitting the winning home run onto the banner to win some fan 500 round trip flights is pretty sweet.

The actual game is/was very good too, although as I'm writing this, the AL JUST took a 3-2 lead in the top of the 9th with 2 outs. Stupid Trevor Hoffman! (When your best pitch goes 74 mph and you throw it a whole lot, that's not necessarily a good thing against top-tier hitters)

That's really disheartening considering how the NL cannot seem to win.

GO NL!! RALLY TIME!!

Oh well, one of these years they'll decide what a bad idea the All-Star game determining the WS home field is and the AL won't automatically have home field.

Ruth vs. Bonds

A trendy topic right now: As a hitter, who was better? Babe Ruth or Barry Bonds?

The two most prolific left-handed power hitters squared off, who would be collecting the MVPs and leading their team to the playoffs if they played at the same time.

First, we'll examine the Babe's pitching stats, which will be left out for the main argument, as there is no way you can make the comparison if you include the fact that Ruth was an amazing pitcher for several years as well.

As a pitcher, Babe Ruth's statistics speak for themselves: 94-46 Record, 2.28 ERA. He also had a good WHIP(Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched, a good indicator of how many baserunners are allowed per inning). His K/Walk ratio isn't great, but with twice as many wins as losses and a low 2's ERA, there's no questioning the Babe had some serious talent as a pitcher.

You can go more in depth on his overall stats here.

Now, we are going to leave those stats out, again, because it's not a fair comparison if Ruth's pitching contributions are included.

Barry Bonds has been an amazing hitter. This cannot really be disputed. The two stats that really are the ones that people look at are his home run total and his on-base percentage, showing how scared pitchers are of him.

Right now, at the All-Star Break 2006, he sits at 720 home runs, which makes him #1 among left-handed hitters and #2 behind Aaron overall.

Meanwhile, Babe Ruth had 714 home runs when he was finished.

In individual best seasons, Bonds beats Ruth there as well, with his record-setting 73 home runs in 2001. Ruth's best season was the then-record 60 home runs that he hit in 1927.

So from their career numbers and best seasons, Bonds holds the advantage so far.

However, in home run totals is about the only place Bonds takes the advantage.

Here are the 162 game averages for each of their careers:

B. Ruth: .342 Batting Average, .474 On-Base, .690 Slugging (1.164 OPS), 46 HR, 143 RBI, 375 Total Bases.

B. Bonds: .300 Batting Average, .442 On-Base, .611 Slugging (1.053 OPS), 42 HR, 110 RBI, 331 Total Bases.(Not including the 2006 season)

Over their careers, Ruth had more home runs per season, batted an astounding 42 points better, and even beat Barry in the category of On-Base Percentage, which was supposed to show how scared all pitchers are of Barry. Seems over their careers, the Babe was more frightening, and that was in an era when the Intentional Walk was not used like it is today.

Two other things to keep in mind when making the comparison: Games per season and each players vs. their contemporaries.

There were 154 games per season for the Babe, which means over his 22 seasons, he missed out on 176 games that he would have played in had those been 162 game seasons.

That's over 1 full season that Bonds has played in that the Babe did not. Going with the Babe's average of 46 home runs per 162. Doing the math, with 176 more games, Ruth would have hit 49 or 50 more home runs, which would put him #1 overall, ahead of Hank Aaron, at 764 home runs.

Now, I'm not advocating that Aaron should get an asterisk or anything, players can only control certain aspects of their careers, and the circumstances by which past great players played is out of their control. BUT, had Babe Ruth gotten the same number of games, and had performed at the same level he performed at otherwise, we're talking Barry still being a good 40 plus home runs behind of Ruth, rather than 6 ahead.

The other part: How did they fare compared to their contemporaries? Gehrig, Foxx and Ott were three of the biggest power hitters around the same time period that Ruth played in. Obviously Gehrig's career was sadly ended by ALS, but he finished with 493 home runs. Foxx finished with 534 home runs. Ott had 511.

These 3 players are the only 3 in the top 25 career home run hitters that played at the same time as Babe Ruth.

Now, let's look at the players who played during the same time period as Barry Bonds:
Sammy Sosa(588), Mark McGwire(583), Rafael Palmeiro(569), Mike Schmidt(548), Ken Griffey Jr.(536), Eddie Murray(504), Fred McGriff(493) and Dave Winfield(465). Keep going down the list and you hit mostly players who are active right now and are contemporaries of Barry Bonds. I even left out Reggie Jackson who played about a season and a half while Bonds was in the early stages of his career.

During Babe Ruth's time, there was no one that compared to him. Foxx's 534 homers was the closest thing. Meanwhile, there are 5 players that are on Bonds' list who have already surpassed Foxx, and one notable player, Griffey Jr., is still active and young enough that it can be expected he'll likely break 600 home runs in his career(Griffey is 35, and should still have at least 3 seasons left in his career).

Again, right below the top 25 is a host of players who are still active and will make the top 25 if they have any level of health remaining in their careers, including: Sheffield(36 y/o, 449 HR), Manny Ramirez(33 y/0, 435 HR), Thome(34 y/0, 430 HR), A-Rod (29 y/0, 429 HR), and to go well down the list and show my homer-ish tendencies, we'll throw on Albert Pujols(26 y/0, 230 HR) as a major threat to those 500 and 600 home run plateaus as well.

Therefore, while Barry stands out among his contemporaries, he isn't nearly as monolithic as Ruth was during his time period. (The purpose of this comparison is to negate any advantage of nutrition, equipment, supplements, etc.)

Clearly, given all the evidence, you MUST conclude that Ruth was a better hitter.

Monday, July 10, 2006

I'm Back! (And Talking about the HR Derby)

First off, I have to say that the wedding, reception, and honeymoon were absolutely awesome and Disney World is an absolutely amazing place to honeymoon at. The Disney Dining Plan is awesome, Kim and I on our last night ate at a steakhouse where our total bill was around $108 for the two of us(A little beyond our typical night out... like $75 beyond).

Now, on to the sports.

I'll start back with something light, and soon I'll be jumping into my comparisons I keep promising.

But tonight, we talk about the derby.

Now, as I'm watching it now, it's looking to be Wright vs. Howard in the final. Two players(especially Wright) who definitely earned their way in.

However, what appeal does this really have?

Outside Ortiz, all the truly marquee names have either declined or dropped out. Is the home run derby on the road to being as boring and silly as the NBA Dunk Contest? Not to say Jason Richardson isn't an excellent dunker, but the titles he won would have had more meaning if they came over Kobe Bryant, Vince Carter, LeBron James, and that ilk of player, rather coming over players of the like of Amare Stoudemire(great player, but big men aren't usually the same type of high fliers) and Desmond Mason.

It doesn't take 8 big name players to be in it, but it'd be nice to see a few more. Ortiz and Tejada can stay in. You need a few young players to sort of be introduced, so Wright, Howard and even Cabrera can be in. Outside that, there needs to be at least a couple more big name players. Pick any two of these: Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Ken Griffey Jr., Vlad Guerrero. Get these guys in the derby!

If David Wright wins the Derby over Pujols, Thome and Vlad(my personal favorite three of those to see), then ya know what, he's really done something. Not that Troy Glaus doesn't have some power, but come on, 1 home run and virtually no star power behind his name. Where's the appeal?

I'm hoping it's just a situation that the players who were going to participate got hurt. Pujols probably could use the rest after his oblique strain, I think Manny pulled out due to injury. But A-Rod? Why isn't he there? Was Thome or Vlad asked? If not, what the hell is up with the MLB Central Office?

On a more fun note though, how much fun would it be to be one of the kids who gets to shag balls in the outfield or even the bullpens? When I have kids, if we're ever in the vicinity of the city where an All-Star game happens and we can get tickets, I'll be doing everything I can to try to get my kids out there if they have any interest in baseball.

How else would they get a chance to perhaps say they caught a major league fly ball from a player like an Albert Pujols?